The Indiana Fever hit the road Wednesday night to face the Washington Mystics in an Eastern Conference clash in the WNBA.
It’s a matchup between two teams that are both hurting right now, as the Fever (2-2 overall) will play their first game without Cailtin Clark this year, while the Mystics (2-3) are trying to snap a three-game losing streak.
Clark will miss a WNBA game for the first time due to a quad strain that will keep her out for at least two weeks, but the Fever are still slight road favorites thanks to their balanced attack and established star power.
Meanwhile, the Mystics will be playing just their second game at home after a four-game road trip, and have seen promising play from their rookie core.
The absence of Caitlin Clark is the major storyline here, but it’s not enough to back off Indiana. The Fever built out their depth this offseason and should still have the firepower to win and cover the spread in D.C.
With Clark sidelined, look for Kelsey Mitchell to slide into more of a playmaking role, and the Fever to lean heavily on the frontcourt trio of Aliyah Boston, Natasha Howard and DeWanna Bonner.
Boston, the 2023 #1 overall pick, has elevated her game, averaging 18.5 points and 10.8 rebounds per game on 60.8 percent shooting. Her efficiency and post dominance could be problematic for a Mystics team that struggled to defend the Dream’s frontcourt duo of Brittney Griner and Brionna Jones, and the Sun’s duo of Tina Charles and Olivia Nelson-Ododa.
One of Washington’s key strengths lies in three-point shooting (38.1 percent – 1st in the WNBA), but they take the fewest shots per game league-wide and play at the slowest pace.
The Fever, by contrast, lead the league in field goal attempts and are #2 in rebounding, by a decent margin. Even if the Mystics slow the tempo, Indiana’s physicality and paint production give them the edge.
Don’t overreact to Clark’s absence because this Fever team is deeper and tougher than last year, and they should have enough defensive presence and interior scoring to grind out a win on the road.
Even though both teams feature offensive talent, the Under looks like the sharper side in Wednesday night’s matchup between the Fever and Mystics.
For starters, while we don’t think Clark’s absence in this matchup will lead to a loss, her lack of presence should impact the point total. Not only does she lead Indiana in points and assists, but she is also a key factor in how Indiana plays at one of the highest paces in the WNBA.
While Kelsey Mitchell is still electric in the backcourt, she may not be as explosive a scorer when taking over more point guard duties.
Indiana may be forced to slow things down and play more in the half court, particularly through Boston and Howard. That should limit transition looks and quick-shot opportunities.
Washington, meanwhile, already plays at one of the slowest paces in the league, averaging the fewest field-goal attempts per game.
Even with the development of rookies Sonia Citron and Kiki Iriafen, this is a team that grinds possessions down and scores selectively. In fact, over the Mystics’ last three games, which have all been losses, they’ve scored just 75, 74 and 62 points, failing to crack the 150-point total in any of those outings.
Defensively, both teams are quietly elite: Indiana ranks second in opponent field goal percentage (37.9 percent), while Washington leads the league at 36.9 percent. And despite their youth, the Mystics defend the three-point line well and rebound at a top-four rate, taking away valuable second-chance scoring.
All of this points to a lower-scoring battle, especially if the tempo leans toward Washington’s grind-it-out style. With both teams emphasizing defense and post play, Under 163.5 is the more logical play.
After an ugly 1-for-13 shooting night against the Mercury, this is a textbook bounce-back spot for Sykes, who is still averaging 22.3 points per game.
Despite inefficiency, she’s posted at least 18 points in three of four games played this year. And in her productive games, she has scored 22-30 points.
The veteran guard is acting as the Mystics’ go-to scorer and initiator, especially with Georgia Amoore (ACL) out for the year and a lack of backcourt playmaking behind her. She’s taking over 16 shots per game and is living at the line, averaging a league-best 11.8 free throw attempts per contest, hitting 9.5 of them.
Even if her field goal percentage stays underwhelming, volume alone makes the Over attractive.
If the Fever overplay help defense inside against Iriafen or are concerned with impressively efficient production of Citron, Sykes should have room to attack gaps or isolate in midrange. Whether it’s in transition or in late-clock situations, she will be the primary option in almost every offensive set.
Even in a lower-paced game, 19+ points feels well within reach for a player with 20+ usage and elite free-throw volume. This is a solid bounce-back prop for Wednesday night.
Indiana Fever | -185 ML |
Washington Mystics | +155 ML |
Spread | IND Fever -4.0 |
Total Points | O/U 163.5 |
Kelsey Mitchell (IND Fever) | O/U 20.5 |
Aliyah Boston (IND Fever) | O/U 17.5 |
Brittney Sykes (WAS Mystics) | O/U 18.5 |
Natasha Howard (IND Fever) | O/U 14.5 |
Sonia Citron (WAS Mystics) | O/U 13.5 |
Kiki Iriafen (WAS Mystics) | O/U 11.5 |
This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.