Indiana Fever vs. Minnesota Lynx: Picks, Predictions and Odds

The WNBA Commissioner’s Cup Championship tips off Monday night in Minneapolis, as the red-hot Minnesota Lynx host the surging Indiana Fever at the Target Center.

This matchup not only crowns the midseason champion but also offers a critical regular-season test between two teams heading in different directions as of late.

The Lynx have built the league’s best record at 14-2 and are a perfect 8-0 on their home floor, while the Fever sit at 8-8 after an uneven start to the year.

These teams have yet to face each other this season, but both earned their way into this Commissioner’s Cup title bout by posting strong records in designated Cup games earlier this month (Indiana 4-1, Minnesota 5-1).

Indiana hopes to get a major boost with the potential return of Caitlin Clark, who has missed the last two games due to a groin injury.

She practiced Sunday and is considered likely to play, but returning from injury against the WNBA’s No. 1 offensive and defensive team presents an immense challenge.

Indiana Fever vs. Minnesota Lynx betting picks and predictions

Lynx -5.5 (-110)

Minnesota’s perfect 8-0 home record has been a showcase of dominance. In their five June home games, the Lynx have won each of them by margins of 14+, including a 39-point dismantling of the Connecticut Sun on Sunday.

What makes the Lynx so dangerous is their balance. Napheesa Collier is playing at an MVP level, but Minnesota’s supporting cast - Kayla McBride, Courtney Williams and Alanna Smith - has been equally consistent.

The Fever, meanwhile, have had a chaotic first half. With Caitlin Clark in and out of the lineup, Indiana has lacked cohesion. While they just beat Dallas 94-86 on the road with a season-best performance from Kelsey Mitchell (32 points), they’ve shown plenty of defensive vulnerabilities.

Even with Clark back, integrating a high-usage star who hasn’t played since mid-June could make for some early turbulence against the WNBA’s most structured and deliberate team.

Clark has been turnover-prone, averaging a league-high 5.9 giveaways per game, and the Lynx defense thrives on creating mistakes. Combine that with their methodical half-court offense (slowest pace in the league) and their ability to win close, low-scoring affairs, and this feels like a difficult spot for a young Fever squad to hang around for four quarters.

Minnesota has the ability to control tempo, force errors and score efficiently without needing to run, and that makes the -5.5 spread look like the play.

Under 166.5 Total Points (-115)

The Lynx rank dead last in pace of play but are first in both offensive and defensive rating, which is a rare and potent combination. They’re incredibly efficient in the half court, generating quality looks off screens, cuts and inside-out movement, but they don’t run often and rarely get to the free throw line.

The Fever, on the other hand, have been an above-average offense this year (4th in offensive rating), but much of that production comes in the paint. They lead the WNBA in percentage of points scored inside, and the Lynx are vulnerable inside, but they are disciplined, physical and shouldn’t allow much from anywhere else on the court.

Beyond that, both teams are elite at defending the perimeter: they rank 1st and 2nd in opponent three-point percentage, and neither squad excels at getting to the charity stripe.

If Clark plays, she adds offensive firepower, but she also adds potential for more turnovers, especially if she’s rusty.

The Lynx have held four of their last five opponents at home to 66 points or fewer. Indiana has allowed 85 or more in four of their last five, but much of that was with Clark out and a disjointed defensive identity.

This matchup should be played almost entirely in the half court, with few transition buckets and extended possessions. A 79-70 type outcome feels much more likely than a track meet.

Aliyah Boston Over 8.5 Rebounds (-125)

If there’s a player poised to dominate the interior Monday night, it’s Aliyah Boston.

Boston is a force on the glass, averaging 8.2 rebounds per game, and surpassing eight rebounds in five of the Fever’s last seven games.

Minnesota may be elite defensively, but their one soft spot is rebounding. They rank ninth in offensive rebounding and just 11th in defensive rebounding.

Boston should be able to take advantage of that. The Lynx allow a high rate of second-chance points and struggle to box out effectively in scramble situations. That sets up well for Boston, especially if the Fever miss early shots while adjusting to Clark’s return.

Even in games where Boston hasn’t scored much, her rebounding numbers have remained strong. With the Fever likely to emphasize interior play and Boston needed to anchor both ends of the floor, she should clear 8.5 boards with room to spare.

Indiana Fever vs. Minnesota Lynx odds

IND Fever	+190 ML
MIN Lynx	-230 ML
Spread	Lynx -5.5
Total Points	O/U 166.5

Indiana Fever vs. Minnesota Lynx player props

Napheesa Collier (MIN)	O/U 22.5
Caitlin Clark (IND)	O/U 19.5
Kelsey Mitchell (IND)	O/U 19.5
Aliyah Boston (IND)	O/U 15.5
Kayla McBride (MIN)	O/U 14.5
Courtney Williams (MIN)	O/U 12.5

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.