Indiana Fever vs. Las Vegas Aces: Picks, Predictions and Odds

Two teams at a crossroads meet this Sunday in a marquee WNBA showdown, as Caitlin Clark and the Indiana Fever travel to Las Vegas to take on the 2022 and 2023 back-to-back champion Aces. Tip-off is set for 3 PM ET, streaming live on Disney+, and both teams are desperate to steady the ship.

The Aces (5-7) are reeling after dropping three straight (two of those at home), despite the return of the three-time MVP centerpiece A’ja Wilson on Friday.

The Fever (6-6) have seen an immediate boost since Clark’s return from injury but took a step back with a sloppy loss to Golden State on Thursday. Now, Indiana will look to bounce back and get back above .500, while Las Vegas tries to avoid a fourth straight loss and regain momentum in front of the home fans.

Indiana Fever vs. Las Vegas Aces betting picks and predictions

Indiana Fever -1.0 (-105)

This line speaks volumes. The Aces, at home, find themselves as slight underdogs against a Fever team that didn’t even sniff the postseason last year. That alone tells you the current form and underlying numbers favor Indiana in this spot.

Let’s break it down: the Fever rank fourth in offensive rating and third in defensive rating so far this season, while Las Vegas sits a disappointing ninth in both.

Indiana shoots the ball more efficiently; they’re fourth in effective field goal percentage versus the Aces at 10th, and they excel where the Aces struggle to defend most: scoring in the paint. The Fever rank first in points in the paint; the Aces are dead last defensively in that category and allow easy looks far too often.

Turnovers could be an X-factor, but Las Vegas does little to force them, ranking 11th in turnover creation. If Clark cleans up her ball security after a rough outing in San Francisco, the Fever’s disciplined offense should find ways to get quality shots throughout.

Even with A’ja Wilson back and posting a big double-double Friday, the Aces fell to Seattle by seven. Wilson’s return helps their rebounding and interior scoring, but Las Vegas still struggles to generate second-chance opportunities; they’re second-to-last in offensive rebounding. They also rely heavily on perimeter shooting.

That plays right into Indiana’s defensive strength: the Fever are third in limiting opponents’ three-point attempts and rank first in three-point percentage defense. If the Aces can’t score at the rim or cash in from deep, where do the points come from?

Expect Clark to lead a more composed offense tonight, exploit the soft interior defense and keep the Fever within striking distance all game. With both teams looking to bounce back, trust the deeper, better-balanced squad to close it out. Fever -1.0 is the play.

Under 171.5 Total Points (-115)

This total looks inflated at first glance, and when you dig into the pace and offensive rebounding numbers, the under stands out. These teams are middle-of-the-pack in pace, as Indiana ranks sixth, Las Vegas seventh, and neither team is built to generate multiple shot attempts on a single trip. Both rank near the bottom in offensive rebounding and are stronger on the defensive glass.

Add in that the Aces are among the top defenses in limiting free-throw trips, and you have a recipe for a lot of one-and-done possessions and long stretches without scoring bursts.

Fast-break scoring won’t bail out the over either, and these squads are 12th and 13th in the league for the percentage of total points that come from transition opportunities.

On top of that, while both teams can knock down threes when they get hot, they’re also top three in limiting opponents’ three-point attempts. Las Vegas does surrender a high percentage on the threes they do allow, but Indiana doesn’t rely on volume perimeter shooting to produce points.

If the Fever control the pace with half-court sets and the Aces continue their inefficient shooting stretch, there’s a good chance this game grinds well under the number. Expect a more defensive, half-court battle than the public may expect.

Caitlin Clark Over 20.5 (-115)

While her off-night against Golden State is fresh in everyone’s mind, Caitlin Clark is primed for a bounce-back. Even with Thursday’s dud, Clark is averaging 19.9 points in her sophomore campaign, and she is expected to push past 20 tonight.

Why the confidence? The Aces defense is vulnerable exactly where Clark likes to operate. Their three-point defense allows a high percentage, and they can’t protect the rim effectively. Clark can exploit both, so expect her to find her range early and attack the paint more decisively after a frustrating 0-for-7 from deep in San Francisco.

Clark has showcased elite three-level scoring when in rhythm, and with Las Vegas struggling to force turnovers (11th league-wide), she should have cleaner looks and fewer giveaways than last game’s six turnovers.

Against an Aces defense that is second-to-last in paint defense and average at best on the perimeter, Clark has multiple paths to hit 21+.

Indiana Fever vs. Las Vegas Aces odds

Indiana Fever	-110 ML
Las Vegas Aces	-110 ML
Spread	IND Fever -1.0
Total Points	O/U 171.5

Indiana Fever vs. Las Vegas Aces player props

Player Points

A’ja Wilson (LV Aces)	O/U 23.5
Caitlin Clark (IND Fever)	O/U 20.5
Kelsey Mitchell (IND Fever)	O/U 17.5
Jackie Young (LV Aces)	O/U 16.5
Aliyah Boston (IND Fever)	O/U 13.5
Jewell Loyd (LV Aces)	O/U 11.5

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.