After sweeping their respective first-round series, the Connecticut Sun and Minnesota Lynx meet in the WNBA semifinals, with the opening game at Target Center at 8:30 PM ET Sunday night.
Napheesa Collier, the WNBA MVP runner-up, put up some historical numbers in the Lynx’ opening-round victory over Phoenix Sun. She became the first WNBA player to score 38 points or more in back-to-back playoff games, and her two-game total of 80 points is the most over any two-game stretch in the playoffs in league history. That included a WNBA playoff-tying record of 42 points in the series clincher.
The Lynx are looking for their fifth WNBA crown and first since 2017. Meanwhile, the Sun are searching for their first league title.
Marina Mabrey, who came over from the Chicago Sky in a mid-season trade, led the Sun with 22.5 points and added 4.5 assists in the series sweep of the Indiana Fever. Alyssa Thomas displayed the form that has earned her three straight Top-Five MVP award finishes, averaging 15.5 points, 13 assists, and 7.5 rebounds in the series.
Read below for our experts’ predictions and player prop picks for the series’ opening contest tomorrow night.
Connecticut took two out of three meetings between the two semifinalists during the regular season. More notably, the underdog covered in all three games. The Sun won their two games by a total of six points, while Minnesota took a two-point squeaker less than two weeks ago.
Minnesota is 18-4 straight up at home, and that includes a 12-10 mark against the spread. The Lynx have also won 16-of-18 games overall. The Sun are 14-6 on the road, including 11-9 ATS.
Look for the Sun to at least cover in a matchup that’s expected to go down to the waning moments.
The teams combined to play to the over in all three regular season meetings. The Lynx averaged 101.5 points in its two-game sweep of Phoenix, combining to average 193 points in those contests. The Sun were slightly lower, averaging 90 points while totaling an average of 165 in its two games against Indiana.
Expect Connecticut and Minnesota to keep scoring points and total over 154.5 points to start this semifinal series.
Mabrey has been everything expected and more since the Sun acquired her. She averaged just under 15 points after coming over to Connecticut, then took it up a notch against the Fever. She led the Sun with a 22.5-point average, including 27 in the opener.
On a team with six players averaging in scoring figures, it can be hard to stand out from the collective. But Connecticut will need Mabrey to be on from the outside to keep the Sun in the games early, especially these first two on the road.
Look for Mabrey to score more than 16.5 points in Game One.
Quite simply, Collier was not messing around. While serenaded with chants of “MVP” by the home crowd, she outdid herself in two first-round games. After scoring 38 in the opener, she tallied 42 in the winner and sent the Lynx to the second round for the first time since 2020. Now, she gets a chance at revenge against a Sun side that eliminated the Lynx in three games last year.
Collier averaged 28 points in two games against Connecticut this season. That includes 25 in a 78-76 victory on the road September 17th. Look for Collier to stay hot and score more than 23.5 points.
Connecticut Sun | +165 |
Minnesota Lynx | -200 |
Spread | Minnesota -4.0 |
Total Points | O/U 154.0 |
Marina Mabrey (CON Sun) | O/U 16.5 |
DeWanna Bonner (CON Sun) | O/U 14.5 |
Dijonai Carrington (CON Sun) | O/U 13.5 |
Napheesa Collier (MIN Lynx) | O/U 23.5 |
Kayla McBride (MIN Lynx) | O/U 13.5 |
Courtney Williams (MIN Lynx) | O/U 10.5 |
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.