Fresh off a two-game skid and playing without rookie sensation Caitlin Clark, Indiana Fever are looking to regroup in a favorable home matchup against the rebuilding Connecticut Sun.
This marks Fever head coach Stephanie White's first game against her former team and the Sun enter Friday’s contest at the bottom of the standings after becoming the WNBA’s first team to reach 0-5.
With minimal returning talent and a youthful core still finding its footing, Connecticut faces a tough challenge on the road against a motivated Indiana team.
Connecticut Sun vs. Indiana Fever betting picks and predictions
Indiana Fever -12.5 (-110)
Even with Clark sidelined due to a quad injury, Fever should roll in this matchup against a Connecticut team that’s been overmatched all season.
The Sun are the first WNBA team ever to lose all five starters from their previous playoff run and it shows. They’ve lost three of their five games by 22 points or more and enter this game ranked 12th in defensive rating and 11th in offensive rating out of 13 teams.
This game sets up as a perfect bounce-back spot for Indiana. Despite their 2-3 record, the Fever are actually third in point differential (+6.2) across the league, with a well-rounded roster and multiple scoring threats.
DeWanna Bonner added a punch off the bench with 21 points in Wednesday’s loss and will be geared up to face her former team, while Kelsey Mitchell and Aliyah Boston give Indiana a frontcourt and backcourt balance Connecticut simply can’t match.
The Sun, on the other hand, are getting very little production outside of Tina Charles, who has looked solid in her return to the franchise, averaging 17 points and 6.6 rebounds.
The Fever’s physicality and interior presence should overwhelm the Sun. Indiana leads the WNBA in % of points scored in the paint, and Connecticut’s defense ranks 11th in % of paint points allowed.
Connecticut is also the worst team in the league at defensive rebounding, last in opponent free throw rate and is 12th in opponent second-chance points allowed, which should further complicate matters against Indiana’s fifth-best offensive rebounding unit.
Indiana is hungry to prove they can win without Clark and avenge last year’s playoff sweep to Connecticut. Expect a decisive double-digit win at home. Lay the 12.5 points with confidence.
Under 162 Total Points (-110)
In the Fever’s first game without Clark, they posted a season-low 63 field goal attempts and committed a season-high 17 turnovers. While they did get to the line often, this still indicates a slower tempo and choppier offensive flow than we’re used to seeing.
The Sun, for their part, play at the 10th-slowest pace in the league and are in full developmental mode. They’re scoring just 71.8 points per game, which ranks last in the league.
With such a young and inefficient offense, and a tendency to rely on mid-range and inside scoring rather than threes, they’re unlikely to contribute significantly to a shootout here, especially against a Fever defense that currently ranks third in defensive rating.
Neither team thrives in transition, both rank in the bottom three in fast break points and each team is in the bottom five in three-point attempts as a percentage of overall field goals. Scoring in this game will come primarily from the interior and the free throw line, which generally leads to slower pace.
Both defenses also allow a high number of free throw attempts, which will keep the clock stopped but not necessarily translate to efficient scoring. Connecticut’s offensive woes and Indiana’s adjustment without Clark should keep this game in the low 150s.
The Fever may win comfortably, but backing Under 162 is our favorite play on the board in this one.
Aliyah Boston Over 16.5 Points (-115)
Aliyah Boston has proven to be a consistent home performer and should be in line for a big bounce-back performance Friday.
In Indiana’s last game Boston got into foul trouble and logged just five field goal attempts (her fewest of the season) finishing with only 10 points.
However, she’s averaging 16.8 points per game and has scored 19, 24 and 27 points in her three home outings this year.
Boston has shown she can dominate in the paint and this matchup suits her perfectly. The Sun are last in the league in defensive rebounding and allow the second-most points in the paint.
Without Clark, the Fever’s offense will need to funnel through Boston even more. She’s also Indiana’s leader in free throw attempts outside of Clark and Connecticut’s interior defense lacks the rim protection and athleticism to keep her at bay and off the line.
In a similar situation earlier this year, after scoring just 4 points against Atlanta, Boston responded with a season-high 27-point performance. She’s clearly capable of bouncing back quickly, especially when playing at home.
With a points prop set at just 16.5, there’s solid value on Boston to go over that total in a game where she should get plenty of post touches and second-chance opportunities.
Connecticut Sun vs. Indiana Fever odds
Connecticut Sun | +575 ML |
Indiana Fever | -850 ML |
Spread | IND Fever -12.5 |
Total Points | O/U 162 |
Connecticut Sun vs. Indiana Fever player props
Player Points
Kelsey Mitchell (IND Fever) | O/U 19.5 |
Tina Charles (CON Sun) | O/U 18.5 |
Aliyah Boston (IND Fever) | O/U 16.5 |
Natasha Howard (IND Fever) | O/U 14.5 |
Olivia Nelson-Ododa (CON Sun) | O/U 9.5 |
Lexie Hull (IND Fever) | O/U 8.5 |
This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
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