United States vs. Japan Women’s Basketball: Picks, Predictions, Odds and Player Props

Team USA begin their quest for an eighth straight gold medal when they face Japan on Monday afternoon in a rematch of the gold medal game in Tokyo three years ago.

The two countries are paired with Germany and Belgium in Group C, termed the Group of Death for this Olympics. The United States returns several Olympic veterans, including Diana Taurasi, who is playing for her sixth gold medal. Japan, meanwhile, returns nine players from its silver medalist team.

USA vs. Japan betting picks and predictions

Team USA -18.5 (-115)

Never mind the 117-109 defeat Team USA suffered at the hands of the WNBA All-Stars last week. The United States lost its tune-up against the WNBA All-Stars in 2021 as well, and still proceeded to win the gold medal.

The team is stacked with two-time WNBA MVPs A’ja Wilson and Breanna Stewart, Taurasi, Sabrina Ionescu and more. This tournament will certainly be a challenge with the world continuing to improve and evolve, but the USA women are still the clear favorites. 

Team USA defeated Japan in the Gold Medal game three years ago, 90-75. Wilson had 19 in that contest and is looking for more now. Expect Team USA to make a strong opening statement to the rest of the field by defeating Team Japan by more than 18.5 points. 

This match up could be closer to Team USA’s result with the WNBA All-Stars, as opposed to the team’s 84-57 tune-up win over Germany on Tuesday. The USA women love to fly up and down the court and have shooters all over the place.

Team Japan will need to shoot well to keep pace but it does have a capable backcourt of Rui Machida and Mai Yamamoto to feed the offense. 

Look for the teams to score more than 161.5 points in a fast-paced Olympics opener. 

A’ja Wilson over 20.5 points (-115)

Take Wilson to stay hot after leading the WNBA in scoring the first half of the season at 27.2 points per game.

She had 22 points in the team’s loss to the WNBA All-Stars and followed that up with 19 points and 14 rebounds in the win this week over Germany.

She is primed and ready to surpass her 19-point gold medal game performance against Japan in 2021. 

Breanna Stewart over 15.5 points (-115)

Wilson’s fellow two-time WNBA MVP, Stewart has also put up solid pre-Olympics performances.

She had 31 points and 10 rebounds against the WNBA All-Stars to go with 15 points against Germany. Japan does not have an answer for her inside.

Unless Team USA gets out to a monstrous lead early and rests Stewart, look for her to score more than 15.5 points. 

USA vs. Japan odds

USA	-5000
Japan	+1600
Spread	USA -18.5 (-115)
Total points	O/U 161.5

USA vs. Japan player props

Player Points

A’ja Wilson (United States)	O/U 20.5
Breanna Stewart (United States)	O/U 15.5
Sabrina Ionescu (United States)	O/U 9.5
Saki Hayashi (Japan)	O/U 12.5
Evelyn Mawuli (Japan)	O/U 11.5
Stephanie Mawuli (Japan)	O/U 9.5

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.