Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Tampa Bay Lightning: Pick, Predictions and Odds

Read the latest betting pick, predictions and odds for the Toronto Maple Leafs (47-26-4) vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (45-26-6) in the NHL, courtesy of our friends at Daily Faceoff.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Tampa Bay Lightning betting pick and predictions

The two top teams in the Atlantic Division will go head-to-head on Wednesday as the Toronto Maple Leafs conclude their back-to-back against the Tampa Bay Lightning.

The Maple Leafs had their four-game win streak snapped on Tuesday in a 3-1 loss to the Florida Panthers. Toronto currently holds a two-point lead over Tampa Bay for the top spot in the division.

Wednesday’s game marks the beginning of a four-game homestand for the Lightning. Tampa Bay has gone 0-3 against the Maple Leafs so far this season, losing 5-2 on Oct. 24, 5-3 on Nov. 30, and 5-3 on Jan. 20. The Lightning are 3-7 straight up in their last 10 meetings with Toronto, but the odds are in their favor heading into this matchup.

According to Evolving Hockey, Tampa Bay ranks 10th in expected goals and ninth in shot attempts at five-on-five, while Toronto ranks 20th and 23rd, respectively. Additionally, while both clubs rank among the top 10 offensive teams, Tampa Bay is second in goals per 60 minutes, while Toronto ranks eighth.

The Lightning have been much better defensively. Only three teams have allowed fewer goals per 60 than Tampa Bay, while Toronto ranks 15th. Not to mention, home teams have won nearly 60 percent of the games in which they have more rest than the road team, so Tampa Bay’s rest advantage is also important.

It also doesn’t hurt that the league’s hottest player, Nikita Kucherov, always seems to show up against the Maple Leafs. Since Feb. 23, no player has recorded more points than Kucherov, who has tallied nine goals and 24 assists in his last 21 games.

Kucherov has also registered at least one point in 10 of his last 11 games against Toronto, notching eight goals and 11 assists since the start of the 2021–22 season. The 31-year-old has also fired 36 shots on goal across six of his last seven outings versus the Maple Leafs.

Pick: Nikita Kucherov 4+ Shots on Goal (+135)

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Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Tampa Bay Lightning odds

TOR Maple Leafs	+155 ML
TB Lightning	-185 ML
Puck Line	TB Lightning -1.5 (+135)
Total Goals	O/U 6.0

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Better Collective. Odds displayed within this article were correct at the time of writing and are subject to change.