South Carolina vs. Texas Women: Picks, Predictions and Odds

The stage is set for an epic showdown in the last four of the women's tournament as the Texas Longhorns (35-3) and South Carolina Gamecocks (34-3) meet for the fourth and final time this season.

With a trip to the national championship on the line, two No. 1 seeds will battle it out at Amalie Arena in Tampa, Florida, on Friday.

These teams are no strangers to each other, having already faced off three times this season. South Carolina holds a 2-1 edge, including a dominant 64-45 win in the SEC Tournament Championship on March 9. The Gamecocks’ depth and size overwhelmed Texas in that matchup, as they controlled the paint, forced 18 turnovers and held the Longhorns to just 1/8 shooting from beyond the arc.

Texas will be looking for revenge, having beaten South Carolina 66-62 in Austin earlier in the season. However, the Longhorns struggled in both road and neutral site contests against the Gamecocks, losing by 17 in Columbia and by 19 in the SEC final.

With both teams well-rested and locked in, this semifinal clash could come down to who executes better in the paint and on the boards.

South Carolina vs. Texas Women betting picks and predictions

South Carolina -5.0 (-115)

One key factor in Texas’ SEC Tournament struggles was fatigue. The Longhorns had to play three games in as many days, with star player Madison Booker logging heavy minutes. While they are better rested now, South Carolina’s depth remains an advantage, as they consistently distribute minutes to keep their key players fresh, creating an ability to wear down opponents over 40 minutes.

While Texas has successfully relied on its star Booker, who is averaging 18.8 points and eight rebounds per game in the tournament, the Gamecocks have shown their ability to neutralize her, holding her to just 25.9 percent shooting across three meetings (54 shot attempts) this season.

That isn’t entirely surprising given South Carolina’s deep frontcourt rotation and third-ranked two-point defense, where they hold opponents to 37.6 percent shooting.

The Gamecocks’ frontcourt, led by Chloe Kitts (12.3 PPG, 8.0 RPG in the tournament), has been instrumental in their postseason success. South Carolina has held tournament opponents to just 28.5 percent shooting from three and has allowed only 44 total free throw attempts in four games.

Texas, on the other hand, struggles with fouling, ranking in the bottom third of the country in opponent free throw attempts per game. 

Across three meetings, South Carolina shot 45 free throws against Texas, which is an area where the Gamecocks don’t produce a lot of scoring.

Another key factor is South Carolina’s ability to control the tempo and paint scoring. The Gamecocks rank third nationally in offensive efficiency and second in defensive efficiency per Bart Torvik. They also rank 36th in effective field goal percentage (51.2 percent), compared to Texas’ 90th ranking (48.6 percent).

In the SEC Championship game, South Carolina dominated points in the paint (40-18) and showcased its superior depth. Even with Texas getting extra rest this time around, the Gamecocks' ability to control the interior and defend without fouling should once again make the difference.

Under 125.5 Total Points (-110)

Despite both teams having top-10 offenses, this matchup has consistently trended toward the Under. The three meetings this season have produced final scores of 117, 109 and 128 points, with only the Texas home game surpassing the 125.5 mark.

Both teams pride themselves on defense – each ranking in the top three in defensive efficiency – with Texas holding opponents to 53.8 PPG in the tournament and South Carolina allowing just 54.5 PPG.

The Gamecocks’ ability to limit three-point attempts and protect the paint should keep Texas from finding any sort of rhythm. Additionally, Booker has struggled against South Carolina’s defensive length, and if she has another inefficient shooting night, Texas’ offense could stall.

The pace of play will also factor into this pick. South Carolina ranks 317th in three-point shooting rate, and Texas ranks 362nd. Both teams rely on interior scoring, rebounding and second-chance points, which could lead to a more methodical, grind-it-out affair.

Given the defensive efficiency of both squads, the Under looks like the best play.

South Carolina vs. Texas Women odds

Texas	+190 ML
South Carolina	-230 ML
Spread	South Carolina -5.0
Total Points	O/U 125.5

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.