Texas heads to Knoxville for one of the biggest games of Week 4, with the No. 1-ranked Longhorns facing a Tennessee team that has looked explosive through three games behind true freshman quarterback Faizon Brandon.
The Vols have leaned heavily on Brandon's mobility and DeSean Bishop in the ground game, while Texas arrives with the benefit of already having survived a high-level test against Ohio State.
Tennessee has plenty of talent, but asking a freshman quarterback making his fourth college start to solve one of the best defenses in the country is a major step up.
This should also tell us plenty about a Texas offense that has not yet looked as dominant as expected.
Texas vs. Tennessee betting picks and predictions
Texas -4.5 (-105)
Tennessee has done nearly everything it could reasonably ask of Brandon so far.
He has been dangerous with his legs, managed the offense well and given Josh Heupel the ability to build the offense around a physical rushing attack rather than asking his freshman quarterback to throw 40 times.
The problem is the opponent. Texas ranks seventh nationally in EPA against the run and 32nd in defensive rushing success rate despite already facing Ohio State.
Tennessee, meanwhile, has generated much of its offensive value through explosive rushing plays rather than consistently winning down to down.
If Tennessee can run efficiently for four quarters, this game can stay tight. If not, Brandon will eventually be forced into obvious passing situations against a defense far more talented and complex than anything he has seen so far.
The Longhorns have already been through a heavyweight game and found a way to beat Ohio State. Their offense was dormant for much of that matchup, but Steve Sarkisian adjusted in the second half when Ohio State was sitting on inside zone concepts.
Texas has the more experienced quarterback, the better collection of answers schematically and the stronger defense.
The Longhorns have not been convincing on the road under Sarkisian, with ugly trips to Florida and overtime games against Mississippi State and Kentucky last season. Their rushing success rate was also only 44% against UTSA, which is not encouraging.
Arch Manning has not yet become the surgical passer many expected, either, but Tennessee has not really been tested.
Even in its win over Georgia Tech, the Vols lost the success-rate battle, suggesting the margin was helped by explosives rather than consistent control.
Against Texas, those big plays should be harder to find.
If Collin Simmons is 100%, Texas has the best defensive player in this game by a longshot. I trust the Longhorns' experience and defensive structure to eventually force Brandon into a few costly decisions.
Over 55.5 total points (-105)
The Vols' offense is legitimate. Brandon is already a dangerous runner, Bishop gives Tennessee another explosive option and Heupel remains one of the best offensive designers in the sport.
Texas should limit the easy rushing production, but Tennessee only needs enough success to create scoring opportunities.
The bigger reason I like the Over is that I expect Texas' offense to finally show more of its ceiling.
Tennessee has done a good job limiting explosives so far, but the competition has not remotely prepared its secondary for what Sarkisian can create with Manning and Cam Coleman.
Texas' offensive tackles have also held up well in pass protection.
Tennessee needs to pressure Manning. If it cannot, Texas should be able to attack a secondary that has not yet been tested by a passing game with this much talent.
Manning does not need to be perfect. He just needs clean pockets long enough for Texas' route concepts to develop.
Tennessee will keep using Brandon as a runner, and Texas should create more one-on-one opportunities downfield as the game develops.
The noon-style early start in Knoxville could produce a slower opening quarter, but once both offenses settle in, there is enough playmaking talent here for the scoring to accelerate.
A game in the 34-27 range gets us there.
Cam Coleman anytime touchdown (+105)
This price jumped out immediately. Coleman has only 11 catches through three games, but four of them have gone for touchdowns.
At 6'3", Coleman is one of the best red-zone and contested-catch receivers in college football. He does not need massive volume to cash this prop because Texas can simply isolate him in single coverage and let him win above the rim.
Texas may not consistently run the ball well enough to finish every red-zone possession on the ground, which could push Sarkisian toward more designed opportunities for Coleman near the goal line.
Tennessee's secondary has also not seen anything close to this collection of skill talent yet.
If the Vols devote extra resources to stopping the run or disguising pressure against Manning, Coleman should see opportunities outside.
The other reason I like this bet is that Texas needs him to become more involved.
Manning and Coleman have both left something on the table through three games. In a road matchup of this magnitude, Texas needs its most talented offensive players to make plays.
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Texas vs. Tennessee odds
Texas | -190 |
Tennessee | +160 |
Spread | Texas -4.5 |
Total | O/U 55.5 |
Texas vs. Tennessee player props
Anytime touchdown
Hollywood Smothers (Texas) | -160 |
Raleek Brown (Texas) | -120 |
DeSean Bishop (Tennessee) | -115 |
Cam Coleman (Texas) | -105 |
Ryan Wingo (Texas) | +105 |
Arch Manning (Texas) | +115 |
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
