Tommy Paul vs. Carlos Alcaraz: Picks, Predictions and Odds

The French Open serves up a fascinating quarterfinal clash between Tommy Paul and defending champion Carlos Alcaraz on Tuesday.

Paul, the first American man in over two decades to reach this stage in Paris, arrives with a score to settle against the Spanish sensation.

They met at the same stage in last summer’s Olympic Games when Alcaraz edged into the medal matches after a close encounter on the French clay.

Paul reached the quarterfinals of the Australian Open earlier this year before falling to Alexander Zverev and he will again have the underdog status for this matchup.

Alcaraz remains the heir to Rafael Nadal’s crown as the King of Clay and demonstrated his qualities on the surface last summer in beating Zverev in an epic five-set final.

He also reached the Gold Medal match at the Olympics only to lose in two tight sets to Novak Djokovic with the Serbian taking both on tie-breaks.

Alcaraz has surprisingly dropped sets in three of his four matches in the first week, but the Spaniard has not let it bother him, coming through to win in around three hours or less each time.

Meanwhile, Paul battled through grueling five-set matches earlier in the tournament, but found his rhythm in the fourth round, dismantling Alexei Popyrin in straight sets.

Tommy Paul vs. Carlos Alcaraz betting picks and predictions

Carlos Alcaraz to win 3-0 (-125)

Paul’s ability to recover from slow starts and capitalize on opponent’s errors or lapses in concentration have been a hallmark of his run to the last eight.

The 12th seed is enjoying his best-ever run at the French Open and he will re-enter the world’s top-10 after the tournament whatever the outcome on Tuesday.

At 28, he is arguably at the peak of his powers now and may not get a better chance to earn his second Grand Slam semi-final appearance.

However, Alcaraz has yet to find fourth gear in this year’s tournament and will have been saving his best tennis for the second week in Paris.

He took advantage of Jannik Sinner’s absence to claim both the Monte Carlo and Italian Open titles and has an almost perfect record on clay this year.

His only defeat on the dirt came to Holger Rune in Barcelona when he received treatment for a right leg injury.

But his subsequent wins suggest he is well over that problem and a fully-fit Alcaraz could sail through this clash in straight sets.

The Spaniard’s heavy topspin forehand is a huge weapon when the courts are fast and bouncy, which looks likely to be the case on Tuesday when the weather warms up.

While Paul’s recent performances have been impressive, and his fighting spirit could make him hard to shake off, Alcaraz’s pedigree and current form make him the clear frontrunner to win in three sets.

First Set Correct Score - Alcaraz 6-3 (+450)

When Paul revisits what went wrong in that Olympic quarter-final against Alcaraz in preparation for this clash he will realize that fine margins decided the clash.

The Spaniard secured the only break of serve in the first set when he applied pressure in game six, taking his second break-point to go 4-2 up.

And, although Paul tried to respond immediately by earning two deuces on the Spaniard’s next service game, Alcaraz held and took the opener 6-3. 

The American got the first break of serve in the second to turn the momentum back his way, but Alcaraz struck back when Paul was serving to level the match and it proved to be a huge psychological blow.

Paul had another set point in the tie-break, but could not take it on the Spaniard’s serve and eventually went down 9-7 to miss out on any medal.

Alcaraz’s superb mentality allied to his supreme clay-court game should ensure he gives himself the best possible start on Tuesday.

The defending champion is ruthlessly efficient at taking break-point chances and ups his game when put under pressure, so one break may be enough for him to seal a 1-0 lead in Paris again.

Tommy Paul vs. Carlos Alcaraz odds

Tommy Paul	+700
Carlos Alcaraz	-1200

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.