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Tommy Paul vs. Alexander Zverev: Picks, Predictions and Odds

An exciting clash is in prospect in the Australian Open men's singles quarter-finals as Tommy Paul of the United States takes on second seed Alexander Zverev of Germany.

Both players breezed through their fourth-round assignments in straight sets and with Paul and Zverev both at a career-high position in the world rankings a high-quality contest is expected.

The American player star is the 12th seed and ranked 11th in the world but his efforts in Australia are set to propel him into the top 10 whatever happens in this tough match.

Both men are in their prime at 27 and Paul has the edge in their head-to-head series having won both of their previous meetings. Those matches took place in 2020 and 2022, though, and Zverev has risen higher in the sport since then.

The German has won 23 career titles and reached two Grand Slam finals - the US Open in 2020 and last year's French Open - while he is aiming to reach the Australian Open semifinals for a third time after making the last four in Melbourne in 2020 and 2024.

Paul has won only four career titles but his sole Grand Slam semifinal appearance came in this event in 2023, when he went out against eventual champion Novak Djokovic.

Zverev is the -300 favorite to reach the semifinals and set up a meeting with either Djokovic or Carlos Alcaraz, with Paul available at odds of +240 to cause an upset.

Tommy Paul vs. Alexander Zverev betting picks and predictions

Alexander Zverev to win 3-0 (+200)

Tommy Paul should be satisfied to have reached a Grand Slam quarterfinal for the third successive season after his breakthrough at that level in the 2023 Australian Open, but it is hard to see his 2025 challenge going any further.

The American faces a classy opponent in red-hot form and this matchup represents a major step up in difficulty from the opponents he has faced so far in Melbourne.

Paul's tournament almost never got off the ground at all as he was taken to five sets in the first round by home hope Christian O'Connell.

O'Connell twice levelled the match against Paul and went down only 7-5 in the fifth. Paul then lost the first set of his second-round match against Kei Nishikori of Japan, although he responded superbly to progress 6-7 6-0 6-3 6-1. 

The American has won in straight sets in the last two rounds, against Spain's Roberto Carballes Baena and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, however he was fortunate to be facing an exhausted opponent in the fourth round as Davidovich Fokina was coming off back-to-back five-set battles and had nothing left in the tank, losing 6-1 6-1 6-1.

Zverev cruised through his early matches, beating Lucas Pouille, Pedro Martinez and Jacob Fearnley in straight sets.

He lost his only set of the tournament to date in the last round against 14th seed Ugo Humbert of France, but his opponent played really well in that match and still lost 1-6 6-2 3-6 2-6, showing the kind of form Zverev is in.

The German's victory over Humbert was his 26th in a row against left-handed opponents but while Paul is naturally a lefty he plays right-handed.

Alexander Zverev -4.5 match spread (games) (-120)

Zverev has won all four of his matches in this tournament by between six and 12 games and could keep up that run by winning at least five more games than Paul in the match.

The German ended 2024 with comfortable wins over Thiago Monteiro and Zhizhen Zhang at the United Cup event after reaching the semifinals in the ATP Finals in Turin in November and winning the Paris Masters before that with a 6-2 6-2 success over Humbert, so he has been in ruthless form.

First set score Zverev 6-3 (+600)

Paul has won the first set in each of the players' two previous meetings, a 6-3 6-4 win in Acapulco in 2020 and a 6-2 4-6 7-6 victory in their last-64 clash at Indian Wells in 2022.

However, those results could be misleading as a formguide for their first 2025 clash as Zverev was struggling with his game at the time of the first match, while he was well placed in the Indian Wells contest but faded under pressure. 

He's right on top of his game now, though, and a 6-3 first-set success for the favorite looks a decent value bet. Zverev has lost only nine games in the opening sets of his first four matches in Melbourne, while Paul lost his first set against Nishikori and was taken to a tiebreak by Carballes Baena at the start of their match.

Tommy Paul vs. Alexander Zverev odds

Tommy Paul

+240

Alexander Zverev

-300

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.

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