Fourth-round action at the Wimbledon Championships wraps up on Monday at the All-England Club, where the remaining quarterfinal spots will be handed out.
It has been an upset-filled tournament, but in no section of either the men’s or women’s singles draws do more seeded players remain than in the bottom half of the women’s competition.
As expected, No. 7 seed Mirra Andreeva and No. 10 Emma Navarro have made their way safely through to the second week of Wimbledon.
The result is an intriguing head-to-head battle in London on Monday. Andreeva is in the fourth round at this event for the second time in her career, while Navarro made a quarterfinal run last summer.
Reaching the business end of a Grand Slam is nothing new for either player. Andreeva was a semifinalist at in Paris in 2023 and she reached the quarters of that tournament this spring.
Navarro has already reached three slam quarterfinals, including a semifinal run at the 2024 U.S. Open.
Let’s take a look at the odds and the best bets to make in advance of Monday’s showdown between Andreeva and Navarro.
As a considerable underdog, Navarro has intriguing value to win outright. The American is once again playing impressive tennis at the All-England Club, just as she did in 2024.
Last summer Navarro ousted Naomi Osaka, Diana Shnaider and Coco Gauff on her way to the quarterfinals before losing to eventual runner-up Jasmine Paolini. So far this fortnight she has defeated two-time Wimbledon champion Petra Kvitova (6-3, 6-1), Veronika Kudermetova (6-1, 6-2) and defending champion Barbora Krejcikova (2-6, 6-3, 6-4).
It should also be noted that Navarro also played well just a couple of weeks ago in Bad Homburg, where she made quick work of Osaka and Marta Kostyuk before falling in three sets to eventual title winner Jessica Pegula. So it’s not like this Wimbledon performance has come out of nowhere by any means.
Andreeva is also in solid form, but it’s hard to confirm that she has recovered from a French Open quarterfinal loss as a massive favorite against little-known Frenchwoman Lois Boisson. After that, the lost to Magdalena Frech in the Berlin first round (6-0 in the third set) and to Linda Noskova in the Bad Homburg second round (6-3, 6-3).
This appears to be a much more even matchup than the odds suggest, and it’s one in which Navarro can very realistically prevail.
To a greater extent than at any of the other three Grand Slams, Wimbledon matches are generally more competitive and therefore longer. That’s because grass is a great equalizer. It is difficult to break serve on this surface; as a result, favored players can sometimes struggle to pull away from underdogs. Tiebreakers are plentiful.
This contest between Andreeva and Navarro should be no exception. The Russian did not lose serve a single time in her only previous matchup against Navarro while being forced to save just one break point. Andreeva has been broken only four times through three matches at Wimbledon. Navarro dropped serve only twice through her first two rounds in London.
A three-set marathon would be no surprise given that these are two of the best players remaining in the women’s bracket. Even a two-set match, however, has a decent chance of exceeding 22.5 games if at least one tiebreaker is placed.
Although both women do a good job of holding their serves, neither one strikes a lot of aces. In fact, Navarro has hit a mere two aces through three matches – a mere 0.07 aces per game.
Andreeva has recorded seven aces in six sets – good for 0.26 aces per game. Their only previous head-to-head contest came last summer in Cincinnati, where conditions are some of the fastest on tour. It’s not difficult to hit aces at that tournament, but they combined for only two against each other (both struck by Andreeva).
There is a good chance that Navarro does not send one serve past her opponent on Monday. If not, asking Andreeva to hit at least five seems like a tall order regardless of how long the match lasts. At plus money, under 4.5 aces has outstanding value.
Mirra Andreeva | -175 |
Emma Navarro | +137 |
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.