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Lorenzo Musetti vs. Taylor Fritz: Picks, Predictions and Odds

American Taylor Fritz should have too much for Italian Lorenzo Musetti in their Wimbledon quarterfinal.

Fritz is coming off one of the best wins of his career, as he came from two sets down to knock off Alexander Zverev in a thrilling five-set encounter to advance to the quarterfinals at Wimbledon.

Not to be outdone, Italian Musetti advanced to his first-ever Wimbledon quarterfinal on Monday after knocking off the big serving Frenchman Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard in four sets.

Musetti is not typically known to be a grass-court player, but he’s having a tremendous tournament and deserves respect in this matchup. 

With a first-time berth in the semifinals on the line for both players, Wednesday’s match should be an entertaining affair with plenty of drama to be had.

While Fritz is a heavy favorite for this match, there is plenty of reason to expect a close contest on this massive stage. 

Lorenzo Musetti vs Taylor Fritz betting tips and predictions

Taylor Fritz to win & both players to win a set (+148)

This is set to be the fourth career meeting between these players and so far Fritz holds a narrow 2-1 advantage, although Musetti has the most recent victory in their personal series with a 6-4 6-4 victory in Monte Carlo earlier this year.

That was played on clay and Musetti showed his class on that occasion, but this is a much different test against an elite server on a much faster surface.

These are optimal conditions for Fritz, whereas for as comfortable as Musetti has looked on grass this season, the tall American should still hold the edge on a speedier court.

Fritz is featuring in the third round of Wimbledon for the first time at the sixth attempt and none of his five ATP Tour career final appearances have come on clay.

That is not to say Musetti can’t win, but there’s a reason why he’s a substantial underdog heading into this matchup.

Nonetheless, there is a path for the Italian to take at least one set off his counterpart given how well he’s playing.

Musetti will need to generate more pace on his serve, which he’s been doing successfully so far in this tournament.

He’ll also need to attack the Fritz backhand with his own backhand and encourage longer rallies if wants to have any chance of putting on the Fritz serve. 

There is a lot to like about the way the Italian is playing, but Fritz has been in this spot a handful of times before against significantly better players.

That experience should pay off in a big way in this match. This is also some of the best tennis the American has played on grass in his career, as he captured his third title at Eastbourne just before this event. 

With all of this context in mind, backing Fritz to prevail but both players to win a set at +148 could represent the best value in this contest.

Musetti should be able to redline his game enough to take one set off Fritz, while the American should still be expected to prevail in a contest that will be on his racket as long as he’s able to land first serves at a decent clip. 

Fritz to win in four sets (+220)

Musetti’s best chance to win a set in this match will likely be in the first two sets, particularly if Fritz comes out a bit slow on serve following his five-set encounter with Zverev that undoubtedly took a lot out of him physically. 

Therefore, it’s hard not to like the idea of backing Fritz to win in four sets, especially at a very favorable price of +220.

As long as the big American can land roughly 65 per cent of his first serves, he should be able to hold serve comfortably and deliver in the big moments in any potential tiebreak.

It all points to a tight four-setter in which Fritz comes out on top and advances to a Grand Slam semifinal for the first time in his career.     

Lorenzo Musetti vs Taylor Fritz odds

Lorenzo Musetti


Taylor Fritz


This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.

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