Lorenzo Musetti vs. Carlos Alcaraz: Picks, Predictions and Odds

Reigning French Open champion Carlos Alcaraz is two wins away from defending his title on the Paris clay, and the Spanish superstar is a heavy favorite for Friday's semifinal clash with Lorenzo Musetti.

Alcaraz has had a mixed tournament so far, beating Giulio Zeppieri in straight sets in round one, then suffering from lapses in concentration in the latter rounds, requiring four sets in victories over Fabian Marozsan, Damir Dzumhur and Ben Shelton.

However, the four-time Grand Slam champion was in sparkling form in the quarterfinals, easing to a 6-0 6-1 6-4 victory over American Tommy Paul, who was admittedly hampered by an abdominal injury.

Even with Paul's fitness issues in mind, it was a hugely accomplished performance from the defending champion, who fully deserves his status as French Open favorite.

Musetti, meanwhile, has been excellent all season on European clay and has continued to thrive on the surface in the French capital, beating Yannick Hanfmann, Daniel Galan, Mariano Navone and Holger Rune in his first four matches.

The Italian, now up to seventh in ATP World Tour rankings, also faced an American in his quarterfinal match, taking out Frances Tiafoe 6-2 4-6 7-5 6-2 in a competitive contest.

Alcaraz is -700 on the money line with Musetti +450 in his bid to spring a surprise.

Lorenzo Musetti vs. Carlos Alcaraz betting picks and predictions

Carlos Alcaraz to win & under 32.5 games (+110)

Runs to the Monte Carlo Masters final and the semifinals in Madrid, Rome, and now Paris, illustrate just how well Musetti is playing but, in Alcaraz, he faces a rival who he has struggled to beat.

The Italian triumphed in their first meeting in Hamburg, in different clay conditions to those found at Roland Garros, but Alcaraz has won all five subsequent clashes, including in April's Monte Carlo final and in the last four in Rome.

Musetti was competitive on both occasions - he won the first set 6-3 in Monte Carlo before Alcaraz roared back to win the next two for the loss of just one game - then he forced him to a second-set tiebreak at the Foro Italico a month later.

As world No.7, Musetti deserves his place in what will be his first French Open semifinal, but he wasn't overly convincing in his quarterfinal win over Tiafoe, with the pair neck-and-neck before the Italian won a tight third set 7-5. 

In Alcaraz, he faces a younger rival, but one who is more experienced on the biggest stages, reaching six previous Grand Slam semi-finals, winning four of them, then going on to claim the title on each occasion.

The 22-year-old dropped his level at times in the earlier rounds, but he looked awesome in his quarterfinal win over Tommy Paul on Tuesday, winning 88% of points behind his first serve and not allowing his opponent any looks at a break point.

His first-serve percentage of 78% was equally eye-catching and a similar performance will make him extremely hard to beat, even if Musetti is likely to be a lot more mobile than Paul.

The best way to profit could be to back Alcaraz in a match featuring fewer than 33 games.

While Musetti took a set off him in Monte Carlo, Alcaraz has won 11 of the last 12 sets they have contested, and 10 of those sets were captured for a loss of no more than three games. 

If the Spaniard starts quickly, this semifinal could soon turn into a one-sided contest.

Under 6.5 match aces (-125)

It could also pay to bet under the total aces in a match between two players who are not renowned for their powerful serves.

Musetti fired in eight aces in four sets against Tiafoe, but this time he's up against one of the sport's great returners in Alcaraz, who has the highest clay-court game-winning percentage as a returner (39.4%) on the 52-week ATP Tour rankings.

Alcaraz has averaged just four aces per match at the French Open, and the pair combined for just one ace - from the racquet of Alcaraz - when they met in the Rome semifinals.

Lorenzo Musetti vs. Carlos Alcaraz odds

Lorenzo Musetti	+450
Carlos Alcaraz	-700

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.