Jannik Sinner vs. Taylor Fritz: Picks, Predictions and Odds

In the all-American last-four battle, it was Taylor Fritz who emerged from a five-set epic to end the US wait for a men's Grand Slam finalist, with Andy Roddick having last done so at Wimbledon in 2009.

Roddick was also the last American male to win a major singles title with his US Open success in 2003 and there is little doubt that Fritz will have the full support of the vociferous home crowd as he looks to take the final step on Sunday.

However, as well as the burden of history, Fritz has to contend with the dominating force that is Jannik Sinner, the world number one who is looking to win his second Grand Slam title of the year, following his success on the hard courts in Australia.

While his last-four exit at the French Open and quarter-final defeat at Wimbledon were far from failures, his withdrawal from the Olympics might just have given him the rest and recuperation he needed for a successful assault in New York

Jannik Sinner vs. Taylor Fritz betting picks and predictions

Jannik Sinner to win and both players to win a set (+120)

Sinner is looking for his second major title and has been in impressive form at Flushing Meadows as he looks to capitalise on the surprise early exits of both Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic.

Those shock defeats have also helped to strengthen the Italian's position at the top of the world rankings and although the pair would have been major obstacles to pass, he has warmed up nicely for Flushing Meadows and might well have been too good anyway.

After bowing out in the quarter-finals of the ATP Masters 1000 Canada on his return to action, Sinner went all the way in Cincinnati to secure his fifth title of the year, beating Frances Tiafoe in the final, having also seen off Andrey Rublev and Alexander Zverev previously.

Although it is difficult to suggest that any one of those games was a walk in the park, they allowed him to fine-tune his game perfectly for his New York campaign, and he has had all the necessary answers so far.

Given what he has done in 2024 and his form at the US Open so far, he is a worthy favorite to make his class tell.

However, odds of -400 make little appeal and it may pay to side with Fritz making something of a game of the final.

There is little doubt that Fritz has had to work harder to make it to the title decider, but he has shown enough to be able to trouble Sinner having dispatched eighth seed Casper Ruud and fourth seed Alexander Zverev in four sets.

The American has won two titles this year - at Delray Beach and Eastbourne - having taken a set off Novak Djokovic in the Australian Open quarterfinals, and although he has perhaps been in something of a slump since his Wimbledon last-eight exit, he has rediscovered his mojo in New York.

He beat Sinner in the pair's first meeting at Indian Wells in 2021, winning 6-4 6-3, and although the Italian gained his revenge in their second meeting, also at Indian Wells, in 2023, Fritz forced him to a decider.

Sinner has improved further since then and may ultimately prove too strong but Fritz can again make him work for his success, with the world number one having dropped sets to another American Mackenzie McDonald and Daniil Medvedev so far.

Although Tommy Paul was beaten in straight sets in the round of 16, two of those went to tiebreaks, while Sinner also needed to win seven games in each of the first two sets against a struggling Jack Draper.

Taylor Fritz over 3.5 double faults (-120)

While Fritz has an excellent serve that can be a devastating weapon, he is now taking on the world number one who is sure to put plenty of pressure on him.

Fritz only double-faulted three times against Tiafoe in their five-set semi-final, but he had made five and seven respectively in his four-set victories over Zverev and Ruud previously.

He also served four in his one-sided third-round win over Francisco Comesana and with both the occasion and opponent now at a much higher level in his maiden Grand Slam final, expect Fritz to pass his 3.5 total mark.

Jannik Sinner under 10.5 aces (-110)

While Fritz may not be regarded as the best returner in the game, Sinner may still struggle to hit 11 aces in the contest.

Sinner did strike 11 in his semi-final win over Draper, but the Briton's movement and energy was severely impacted, while he only managed four in his four-set win over Medvedev.

Paul kept him under this line with 10 while Sinner only hit five in his three-set victory over Fritz at Indian Wells last year. While Sinner certainly looks to have the tools to win this one, his success may not necessarily come through the ace count and he could fall short of 11.

Jannik Sinner vs. Taylor Fritz odds

Jannik Sinner	-400
Taylor Fritz	+300

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.