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Jannik Sinner vs. Ben Shelton: Picks, Predictions and Odds

This year's Australian Open has not been without its surprises but Jannik Sinner has so far justified his status as the outright favorite by booking his spot in the men's singles semifinals.

The 23-year-old Italian is both top seed and defending champion in Melbourne and he has managed the weight of expectation well en route to the last four.

He will face up against 21st seed Ben Shelton, who is through to his second Grand Slam semifinal after beating Lorenzo Sonego 6-4 7-5 4-6 7-6 in the quarterfinals.

Sinner, meanwhile, crushed eighth seed and home favorite Alex De Minaur 6-3 6-2 6-1 last time out, quashing suggestions that he is struggling with illness.

Last year was a real breakthrough campaign for Sinner, who collected two Grand Slam titles, and it all started with his heroics in Melbourne, so he will be hoping he can emulate his 2024 performance and make the final of the Australian Open once again.

Jannik Sinner vs. Ben Shelton betting picks and predictions

Jannik Sinner to win and both players to win a set (+137)

Sinner is unsurprisingly short favorite to win this match at -1600 and, while his extra experience should get him over the line, he may not always be in command against the big-hitting Shelton.

In his fourth-round win over Holger Rune, Sinner showed a flash of vulnerability as he appeared unwell, and he benefited from a 20-minute break when the net broke.

Sinner won the match in the end but lost the second set. That was the second time in this Grand Slam that he has dropped a set.

He responded in emphatic fashion with his straight-sets demolition of De Minaur last time out and looked in better health, but that does not mean another 3-0 win will follow against Shelton.

Whether it's been due to not feeling well or another reason, Sinner has shown in this tournament that he has weaknesses to be exploited and Shelton can win a consolation set in Melbourne.

Shelton has battled incredibly hard en route to the semifinals, dropping a set in each of his last four matches but digging deep to get over the line.

If Sinner gets ahead early, it is no foregone conclusion that he will wrap up the match, so a Sinner win and both players to claim a set is the way to go.

Over 33.5 games (-120)

Another way to look at this match is in terms of games played and Over 33.5 games makes an appeal at -120.

Shelton's matches at this season's Australian Open have produced 37, 41, 41, 40 and 45 games, while two of Sinner's last four matches have gone above the 33.5 mark.

Shelton is strong on his serve - he fired down a tournament joint-fastest 144 MPH serve in his win over Sonego last time out - and it could take time for Sinner to break him in each set.

That in turn should see the game count rise and this might not be a straightforward one for Sinner.

Over 1.5 tie breaks in the match (+333)

Shelton's powerful serve could also mean we see more tie breaks in this match than expected and Over 1.5 tie breaks could be worth a bet at +333.

There have been seven tie breaks in matches involving Shelton at this year's Australian Open, while Sinner's opening match against Nicolas Jarry in the first round produced two tie breaks.

In terms of the head-to-head record between these players, Sinner leads 4-1 and all five of their previous meetings have produced tiebreaks, despite four of them being best-of-three set encounters.

There should be ample opportunity for Shelton to push Sinner in this contest and it could well feature at least two tie breaks.

Jannik Sinner vs. Ben Shelton odds

Jannik Sinner

-1600

Ben Shelton

+900

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.

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