Jakub Mensik v Novak Djokovic: Picks, Predictions and Odds

With defending champion Jannik Sinner suspended and former winners Carlos Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev falling by the wayside early, 24-time Grand Slam champion Novak Djokovic seemingly has the Miami title at his mercy.

This is a trophy that Djokovic has won on six occasions, but he hasn’t been crowned champion since 2016 and is a warm favorite at -450 to end the wait against up-and-coming Czech talent Jakub Mensik.

Djokovic’s experience must count for plenty against his 19-year-old opponent and he has eased into the final without dropping a set, which includes claiming the scalps of Lorenzo Musetti, Sebastian Korda and Grigor Dimitrov.

This is without doubt the biggest match in the career of Mensik, who is bidding to claim a maiden ATP Tour title at Masters 1000 level, but his semi-final victory over world number four Taylor Fritz shows that he cannot be taken lightly.

The current world number 54 looks a top-10 player in the making and his humongous serve is sure to ask questions of Djokovic, who is chasing a first title win since he claimed the gold medal at the Olympic Games in Paris last August.

Mensik is +333 to spring the surprise but his only previous final on the ATP Tour came in Doha in February, when he was beaten 7-6 6-4 by Karen Khachanov.

Jakub Mensik vs. Novak Djokovic betting picks and predictions

Over 22.5 games (+100)

Djokovic is understandably a short-priced favorite given he has eased into the final without dropping a set and faces a player that could quite feasibly crumble under the pressure given this is the biggest occasion he has ever found himself in.

However, Mensik showed maturity beyond his years when upsetting home favourite Fritz in the semi-finals and he may be able to push Djokovic harder than the odds suggest.

The Czech youngster’s big strength is his serve and he enjoyed 25 aces against Fritz, which took his total ace count across his five victories in Miami to 92.

That explosive weapon means he should be able to utilise the quick conditions to hold serve the majority of the time and suggests he can remain competitive rather than be involved in a one-way final.

These two did meet at Masters 1000 level in Shanghai in October, with Djokovic winning despite losing the opening set in a tiebreak, and that encounter lasted 30 games.

Therefore, Mensik is fancied to do himself justice and going over 22.5 games could reap the rewards at +100.

There have been five tiebreaks across Mensik’s last four matches, with two coming in his win over Fritz as well as another couple in his shock win over Indian Wells champion Jack Draper, and there is every hope of at least one taking place in this title decider.

Novak Djokovic to win 2-1 (+250)

Mensik’s serve should keep him in the hunt early on but Djokovic should handle the occasion better and this is likely to be settled by his ability to take advantage of the clutch moments.

The Serbian superstar won 6-7 6-1 6-4 in their only previous encounter in Shanghai in October and a repeat 2-1 success makes plenty of appeal at +250.

Mensik has won at least a set in each of his last 12 matches and he is a difficult man to break. He has dropped serve only four times during his dream run to the Miami final and Djokovic may have to be patient before stamping his authority on the contest.

Jakub Mensik to have 15+ aces (+110)

Djokovic may be one of the best returners that there has ever been but even the 24-time Grand Slam champion may struggle to stop the big-serving Mensik having at least 15 aces at +110.

Standing at 6ft 4, Mensik is all about power and the fearless 19-year-old will be looking to exploit that strength in his game, hoping to keep service games short and sweet.

Mensik has had 92 aces across his five Miami victories, having 15 or more on four occasions, and if this title decider goes long as expected then he should have no trouble surpassing that total.

When the Czech teenager lost in three sets to Djokovic in Shanghai five months ago, he had 17 aces and this quick Floridian conditions should play to his strengths.

Jakub Mensik vs. Novak Djokovic odds

Jakub Mensik	+333
Novak Djokovic	-450

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.