Gabriel Diallo vs. Tommy Paul: Picks, Predictions and Odds

With both Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic having been knocked out of the tournament, the higher-ranked players will be on full alert for more potential upsets going forward at Flushing Meadows.

But by the same token, they must feel that this is now the perfect opportunity to claim a Grand Slam tournament, with those two having won eight of the last nine between them, including each of the last two at the US Open.

Tommy Paul will be one of those players, particularly with the backing of the vociferous home support, although he may not get everything his own way in his third-round clash against rising Canadian star Gabriel Diallo.

The 22-year-old is well-attuned to the conditions at Flushing Meadows having come through qualifying, and he has impressed in reaching this stage by inflicting an upset on 24th seed Arthur Fils.

Gabriel Diallo vs. Tommy Paul betting picks and predictions

Tommy Paul to win and both players to win a set (+125)

Tommy Paul had enjoyed an impressive start to this year, taking his title tally to three with two successes in 2024 at Dallas and Queen's Club, while he also reached the final of the Delray Open.

The 27-year-old also enjoyed good runs at Wimbledon and the Olympics, and there was no disgrace in his exits as he was beaten in both tournaments by Carlos Alcaraz.

However, the build-up to the final Grand Slam of the year has been anything but ideal as he was knocked out of the ATP Masters 1000 Canada in his second match, while he lost his first in Cincinnati.

Paul was given a thorough enough workout in his opening match at the US Open, seeing off Lorenzo Sonego 6-4 6-2 5-7 6-2 to perhaps iron out any wrinkles in his game, while he was then able to ease somewhat through his second-round match, leading 7-5 6-0 1-0 before Max Purcell was forced to retire.

The world number 14 appears to be tuning up nicely and is a worthy favorite for this contest against a player he has never faced before, as Diallo is ranked 129 places lower, although it may not be a straightforward success.

Fatigue could be a factor that catches up with Diallo, with his two matches in the main draw so far having gone to four sets, while two of his three in qualifying went to a third-set decider.

However, the impressive nature of his display to knock out Fils, who Paul only just edged in Shanghai in 2023 in their only previous meeting, suggests he can cause problems for Paul, particularly considering the American's patchy form heading into the US Open.

Paul's top-level experience and proven quality should see him progress to the next stage, but Diallo can at least take a set off him.

Tommy Paul over 19.5 games (-120)

Another way to support Paul is to look at his game total and it may pay to back him to win over 19.5 games against Diallo.

Paul could pass that mark within three sets but with Diallo expected to put him to the test, if the match goes into a fourth or fifth set, then it is pretty much assured.

Paul was taken to a fourth set in his tournament opener, winning 23 games on the way, and even though he took two of those sets for the loss of just four games, the fact that he lost a set at all suggests his game is not quite at its peak.

It is difficult to say when Purcell's injury took full effect but Paul needed 12 games to win the opening set in the second round, and with Diallo riding a confidence wave he is likely to make Paul work for his passage.

Tommy Paul 3+ double faults (-125)

With both players boasting powerful serves that perhaps lead to fewer break opportunities, there will be pressure on each to make sure they do not let the other in, and that could lead to double faults.

While Diallo's totals are a little on the high side with 5+ at -250, there is value to be had in Paul hitting three or more at -125.

In his first-round match, the American hit five in a four-set win over Sonego, while he struck one in his one-sided and curtailed second-round encounter.

Diallo has seen 11 double faults served against him in two matches in the tournament, and if he can put the Paul serve under pressure in similar fashion, three double faults is not too big a total to find.

Gabriel Diallo vs. Tommy Paul odds

Gabriel Diallo	+600
Tommy Paul	-1000

This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.