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Daniil Medvedev vs. Carlos Alcaraz: Picks, Predictions and Odds

In a repeat of last season's Wimbledon semifinal, Daniil Medvedev will be hoping he can exact some revenge for that 6-3, 6-3, 6-3 defeat to Carlos Alcaraz and make his first All England Club final.

Medvedev will have plenty of belief he can reverse that form on the back of his thrilling five-set quarter-final victory over Jannik Sinner, who is the world number one and had defeated the Russian in the Australian Open final in January.

Alcaraz is the defending champion at Wimbledon, having overcome Novak Djokovic in last season's final, but he has dropped sets in the last three victories of his title defense.

The Spaniard has dominated their recent rivalry, winning four of their past five matches, which is why he is a strong favorite at -334 to make his fourth Grand Slam final.

Medvedev, bidding to reach a Grand Slam final for the seventh time, is +250 to land the upset.

The Russian has never made the Wimbledon final but he made the Australian Open final for a third time in January and he has also made three title deciders at the US Open, so knows exactly how to come through these tough mental tests.

Daniil Medvedev vs Carlos Alcaraz betting picks and predictions

Carlos Alcaraz to win & both players to win a set +120

Alcaraz has not always looked in complete control of matters in his bid to defend his Wimbledon title, but the Spaniard is still standing and may be growing in stature.

He had to dig extremely deep to fend off the challenge of Frances Tiafoe in the third round, winning in five sets having trailed 2-1.

Alcaraz's following contest against Ugo Humbert went to four sets, with the third seed losing 6-1 in the third set when seemingly on course for a straightforward victory.

The quarter-final against Tommy Paul was another test for the Spaniard, who lost 7-5 in the opening set before turning on the style and taking the final three sets 6-4 6-2 6-2.

Alcaraz has produced his best tennis under pressure and that bodes well for this challenge against Medvedev, who will be riding the crest of a wave after shocking Sinner in the last round.

The Russian deserves plenty of praise for that success, having lost 6-2 in the fourth set before regaining composure to win 6-3 in the fifth.

It shows that Medvedev is in an excellent place right now and he served superbly against the Italian top seed, firing down 15 aces and being broken only three times throughout.

On current form, he is certainly going to ask questions of Alcaraz, who has dropped sets in each of the last three rounds.

However, Alcaraz's style tends to work well against Medvedev, a player he has defeated in four of their last five meetings.

Medvedev has won two of their three Grand Slam meetings but he was comfortably beaten by Alcaraz at Wimbledon last season, with the Spaniard easing to a 6-3 6-3 6-3 success.

Alcaraz can frank that form but whether he is playing well enough to record another straight-sets success is very much open to debate.

Daniil Medvedev over 1.5 breaks of serve -163

While Alcaraz is expected to prevail, this contest should go long - even five sets looks a possibility - so Medvedev can be confident of breaking serve at least twice.

Medvedev broke Sinner, one of the strongest servers on grass on the ATP Tour, three times, and even when losing 6-3 6-3 6-3 to Alcaraz in the Wimbledon semi-final last year, he broke the Spaniard twice.

This contest promises to be more closely-fought and Alcaraz has been broken 12 times across his last three Wimbledon wins, which includes four times against quarter-final victim Paul and five against fourth-round rival Humbert.

Carlos Alcaraz to win from behind +333

Another interesting option is backing Alcaraz to win from behind, something he has already done twice in this Championships against Tiafoe and Humbert.

Alcaraz has had a habit of coming out of the blocks passively and has looked at his most vulnerable in the early stages of a contest, which should inject Medvedev with some hope.

With the Russian serving superbly, Alcaraz is going to find it tough to break early and the opening set could even go to a tiebreak, which would be in the balance.

Daniil Medvedev vs. Carlos Alcaraz odds

Daniil Medvedev +250
Carlos Alcaraz -334

This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.

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