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Coco Gauff vs. Paula Badosa: Picks, Predictions and Odds

Quarterfinal action at the Australian Open will get underway on Tuesday, when the order of play is headlined by a showdown between Coco Gauff and Paula Badosa.

Gauff is aiming for back-to-back semifinal appearances at the first Grand Slam tournament of the year, while Badosa is playing in her first quarterfinal Down Under.

Both players have cruised for the most part so far at Melbourne Park. Gauff won her first three matches in straight sets before losing her opener against Belinda Bencic on Sunday afternoon, before promptly reeling off the next two in a 5-7 6-2 6-1 success.. Badosa has also dropped only one set - against 17th seed Marta Kostyuk in the third round - en route to the quarterfinals.

Whoever advances will face either Aryna Sabalenka or Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova in the last four. If it’s Gauff, she will remain one of the favorites to win the entire event. If it’s Badosa, she will likely go into championship weekend as a relative longshot.

Coco Gauff vs. Paula Badosa betting picks and predictions

Paula Badosa +4.5 games (-120)

The head-to-head history between these two has been incredibly competitive and – as a considerable underdog in this matchup – extremely encouraging for Badosa. They have split their six previous meetings at three wins apiece and just once has Gauff prevailed in straight sets.

The 20-year-old took both of their matchups in 2024, but each one went to three sets and Badosa was on the comeback trail last season from an extended injury layoff. She is now fully 100 percent from a physical standpoint. As for Badosa’s three victories over Gauff, every single one has been in straight sets.

It is true, however, that Gauff is playing the best tennis of her young career at the moment. The world No. 3 is off to a 9-0 start to her 2025 campaign, with five wins at the United Cup (a team competition in Australia that the United States won) followed by four so far in Melbourne. Dating back to her triumph at the 2024 year-end championship, Gauff is on an 11-match winning streak.

Still, Badosa cannot be discounted. Marta Kostyuk is the only woman who has pushed her to three sets this fortnight and she most recently disposed of Olga Danilovic in straight sets – two days after the Serb erased No. 7 seed Jessica Pegula 7-6 (3), 6-1. Moreover, don’t be fooled by the fact that Badosa is currently outside the top 10 (No. 12). This is a player who peaked at No. 2 in the world prior to her 2023 injury and this is her third trip to a Grand Slam quarterfinal - having done so previously at the 2021 French Open and 2024 U.S. Open.

The 27-year-old has the experience and the pedigree to handle this kind of stage. Badosa may not win this one outright, but she should keep it close.

Over 20.5 games (-125)

If Badosa does manage to be competitive, that would obviously result in a longer match with a significant number of games played. As such, this play correlates nicely with Badosa +4.5 games.

Their two 2024 encounters were relatively dramatic, with Gauff prevailing 5-7 6-4 6-1 on the red clay of Rome and 4-6 6-4 6-2 on the hard courts of Beijing. For those counting, that’s 29 games in the former and 28 in the latter.

Badosa clearly can’t match her opponent in the endurance department, but the underdog can at least go toe-to-toe with Gauff for two sets. Even a straight-sets result such as 7-5 6-3 would be enough for this contest to exceed a modest 20.5 total, while any three-set battle is obviously a virtual lock to go over 20.5 games.

Given Gauff’s amazing current form, it’s almost impossible to see her getting wiped off the court quickly by Badosa. At the same time, it’s unlikely to be one-way traffic for the third seed considering her past history with Badosa and her nine double-faults against Bencic.

If Gauff doesn’t figure out her serving woes, she isn’t going to completely crush anyone - let alone a formidable foe like Badosa.

All things considered, the over looks like a strong play.

Coco Gauff vs. Paula Badosa odds

Coco Gauff

-400

Paula Badosa

+300

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.

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