Casper Ruud vs. Jack Draper: Picks, Predictions and Odds

With the big guns for one reason or another having fallen by the wayside, the Madrid final will be a battle between Norwegian world number 15 Casper Ruud and fast-improving British number one Jack Draper.

Two-time winner Carlos Alcaraz was forced to withdraw with an injury scare prior to the tournament while top seed Alexander Zverev and 24-time Grand Slam champion Novak Djokovic were unable to capitalise, both crashing out before the quarter-finals.

Draper has been on a steep upward trajectory this season, climbing up to world number six courtesy of the biggest win of his career at Indian Wells in March.

Having also made the final in Madrid, it means Draper has lost only three of his last 19 matches and has shown his versatility with his run to this clay-court title decider.

That adds another string to the Brit’s bow but in Ruud he is facing one of the best in the business on the slower terrain.

The Norwegian has twice finished runner-up at the French Open and 11 of his 12 career titles have come on the clay, highlighting the dangers he possesses on this surface.

This is a first career meeting between these players but, while Draper is clearly oozing with self-belief, there is a feeling that Ruud may hold the aces on his beloved clay.

Draper is favorite at -225 to make it two Masters 1000 wins in as many months, while Ruud is available at +175 to land the biggest win of his career to date.

Casper Ruud vs. Jack Draper betting picks and predictions

Casper Ruud (+175)

This is by far a career-best performance from Draper on clay, as it is set to be his first final on the slower surface.

Draper has won only three titles on the ATP Tour, with the 23-year-old having long been hampered by injuries, but he looks in a good place now and will still be on a high from his Indian Wells title triumph in March.

The British talent deserves plenty of praise for coming through to the Madrid final, given he had it all to prove on clay, and he has done so without dropping a set.

Wins over Matteo Berrettini, Tommy Paul and Lorenzo Musetti gives that form some substance, although he may have to be at an even better level to deny Ruud.

The Norwegian simply thrives on this slower surface and he has also booked his place in the title decider without dropping a set, with wins over Taylor Fritz, Daniil Medvedev and Francisco Cerundolo showing him to be in excellent touch.

Ruud has reached two French Open finals and one semi-final in the last three seasons, which highlights his level on clay, although this would be his first Masters 1000 title.

Draper does have a Masters crown to his name but Ruud may be able to cope with these conditions the best and makes plenty of appeal as the outsider.

Casper Ruud to make 3+ double faults (+120)

With Draper being so big on serve and having barely given his opponents break-point opportunities, Ruud may feel the pressure to win his service games and that could lead to a few mistakes being made.

This title would represent the biggest win of the Norwegian’s career, which in itself adds pressure, and he could make a few double faults.

Ruud served exactly two double faults in three of his opening four wins in the Spanish capital and then he made three in his semi-final showdown with Cerundolo, although that didn’t stop him from triumphing 6-4 7-5.

Given the standard both players are performing to, it is easy to see this title decider going the distance and Ruud looks likely to make at least three double faults over the course of the match.

Casper Ruud vs. Jack Draper odds

Casper Ruud	+175
Jack Draper	-225

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.