Andrey Rublev vs. Carlos Alcaraz: Picks, Predictions and Odds

Fourth-round action at the Wimbledon Championships gets underway on Sunday.

There have already been a ton of upsets, so only half of the remaining eight players in the bottom half of the men's singles draw are seeded, with two of them going head-to-head in an all-seeded showdown.

Standing in No.2 seed and two-time defending champion Carlos Alcaraz’s way of the quarterfinals is No.14 Andrey Rublev. It is the marquee matchup on Sunday in a section of the draw that has actually gone according to plan so far.

That's not to say it was routine for either man to advance this far, surprisingly, especially not for Alcaraz. The Spaniard needed five sets in round one against Fabio Fognini and on Friday he dropped a set to Jan-Lennard Struff.

Rublev held off Laslo Djere in a fourth-set tiebreaker, scraped past Lloyd Harris in four very competitive sets and then steamrolled Adrian Mannarino in three.

Let's take a look at the odds and the best bets to make in advance of Sunday’s battle between Alcaraz and Rublev.

Andrey Rublev vs. Carlos Alcaraz betting picks and predictions

Andrey Rublev +2.5 sets (-120)

Asking Rublev to simply take one set against Alcaraz should not be too much. They have faced each three times in the past and the Russian got the outright victory in one of those matchups – via a 4-6 6-3 6-2 decision at the 2023 Rome Masters.

That result came on clay, which probably has to be considered Alcaraz’s best surface, while the Spaniard won their most recent meeting this past fall at the Nitto ATP Finals, but the second set went to 10-8 in a tiebreaker.

Dating back to the French Open, Alcaraz has lost at least one set in nine of his last 14 matches. So, even though he is on a 21-match winning streak, the 22-year-old may not be quite as dominant as that number suggests.

Rublev has slipped to No.14 in the rankings from his career high of No.5, but he has looked good so far at Wimbledon.

That is nothing new for the 27-year-old, either. He reached the fourth round of this tournament in 2021 and made a run to the quarterfinals in 2023 before falling to Novak Djokovic in four sets.

Over 33.5 games (-120)

This bet obviously correlates nicely with Rublev taking at least one set, because it is unlikely that the underdog blows Alcaraz off the court in swift fashion.

If Rublev wins a set, in all likelihood it will be a competitive match pretty much from start to finish and that means plenty of games will be played.

Rublev's last two outings have featured 45 games apiece and off his last eight sets played, a whopping five have been decided by tiebreakers.

That means even if the underdog loses in straight sets, this match could still realistically exceed a modest 33.5 number.

Of the last five head-to-head sets between these two players, Alcaraz has won three and Rublev has taken two.

One of the Spaniard's victorious sets went to a tiebreaker. All things considered, Sunday's showdown has the makings of being closer - and therefore longer - than expected.

Over 5.5 service breaks (-120)

This bet also correlates well with over 33.5 games, since more games means more opportunities to break serve.

Rublev has been broken only twice so far at Wimbledon, but that isn't the real concern. He has not yet faced Alcaraz, who may be the best returner in the game.

The two-time defending SW19 champion has earned 18 service breaks through three rounds this week, even though he had to go up against one of the tour's biggest servers in Struff on Friday.

What's more of a danger for this bet failing to cash is Alcaraz's ability to hold serve every time he toes the line.

However, the five-time Grand Slam champion has been broken nine times already at this event. He is serving at just 60 percent and has won a relatively poor 71 percent of his first-serve points.

Rublev is averaging 3.3 breaks per match through three rounds, so, given Alcaraz’s service struggles, the No.14 seed should be able to break several times on Sunday.

Andrey Rublev vs. Carlos Alcaraz odds

Andrey Rublev	+700
Carlos Alcaraz	-1200

Read the latest tennis news on site

This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.