Barbora Krejcikova vs. Jasmine Paolini: Picks, Predictions and Odds

Few would have predicted the Wimbledon women’s final to not feature any of the world’s top four but that is the scenario we are faced with as Barbora Krejcikova gets set to do battle with Jasmine Paolini.

Given their dominance on the WTA Tour, it seemed likely that at least one of Iga Swiatek, Coco Gauff, Aryna Sabalenka or Elena Rybakina would make it all the way to the All England Club title decider.

But Sabalenka was forced to withdraw through injury while Swiatek and Gauff suffered early exits, leaving 2022 Wimbledon champion Rybakina as the final hope among the favorites.

However, the Kazakhstan world number four was beaten by 31st seed Krejcikova in the semifinals, despite taking a first set lead.

Krejcikova has had a lean spell since being crowned French Open champion in 2021 but she has looked resurgent at Wimbledon, where she was doubles champion for a second time in 2022.

The Czech talent is -143 to get the better of her final opponent Paolini, who also required three sets to come through her semi-final showdown with Donna Vekic.

The Italian, very much one of the game’s late bloomers at 28, is featuring in her second consecutive Grand Slam final having finished runner-up to Swiatek at last month’s French Open.

Paolini is +125 to go one better at the All England Club but improvement will be needed from her last-four victory over Vekic, in which she lost the opening set 6-2.

Barbora Krejcikova vs. Jasmine Paolini betting picks and predictions

Barbora Krejcikova -1.5 Games Match Handicap (-120)

This is the first Wimbledon final for both players but there are suggestions that Krejcikova will handle the occasion that bit better.

Krejcikova is, after all, a Grand Slam champion having won the 2021 French Open at Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova’s expense. Plus, defeating former Wimbledon winner Rybakina from a set down in the semifinals should have filled her with plenty of confidence.

Rybakina, champion in 2022 and blessed with one of the biggest and most efficient serves on the WTA Tour, is extremely difficult to live with when on a roll.

Breaking her is especially hard but despite losing 6-3 in the opening set, Krejcikova came up with the goods and played some pretty faultless tennis as she closed out the final two sets 6-3 6-4.

The Czech performer is strong in virtually every department and her defence is going to be key against the strong-moving Paolini, who will be looking to utilise her flat and powerful groundstrokes.

Krejcikova has already shown that steely side in defeating Danielle Collins and Jelena Ostapenko and this is a similar match-up for her, suggesting she may be too strong.

Paolini’s first taste of a Grand Slam final, at the French Open last month, ended in a 6-2 6-1 defeat to Swiatek and that may still be fresh in the memory.

The Italian may take time to settle and losing the first set in the same manner she did in the semifinals against Vekic - by a 6-2 score - could be fatal.

It is, therefore, easy to see why Krejcikova is considered a strong outright favorite at -143 but bettors may be able to get more bang for their buck by taking -120 for her covering a handicap of -1.5 games.

Barbora Krejcikova first set winner (-138)

Given the way in which she was blown away by Swiatek in the French Open final earlier this summer, nerves could see Paolini set for a slow start.

Paolini took time to find her stride in her last-four clash with Vekic, losing 6-2 in the opening set, and Krejcikova can capitalise on that.

The Czech star has won the opening set in five of her six Wimbledon assignments, only failing to do so in the semi-final showdown with Rybakina, and she can get off to another flyer with the Venus Rosewater Dish up for grabs.

Barbora Krejcikova Over 3.5 aces (-110)

Krejcikova has improved as the tournament has progressed and her serve has especially become more dangerous.

The world number 32 served four aces in her three-set semi-final win over Rybakina, having served five in each of her previous two encounters with Collins and Ostapenko.

While she is not the biggest server on the WTA Tour, she should still be able to hit at least four against Paolini.

Vekic fired in seven aces against Paolini while Madison Keys had six in their fourth-round encounter, suggesting Krejcikova can go close to reaching that total.

Barbora Krejcikova vs. Jasmine Paolini odds

Barbora Krejcikova	-143
Jasmine Paolini	+125

This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.