Aryna Sabalenka is bidding to become the first woman to win three straight Australian Open titles since Martina Hingis completed the feat in 1999, and the World No. 1 is a strong favorite to rack up the hat-trick against Madison Keys.
Sabalenka has been utterly dominant in hard-court Grand Slams in recent years, with last season’s US Open win following a runner-up effort at the same tournament in 2023.
That means the Belarusian is featuring in her fifth consecutive hard-court Grand Slam final, having won 34 of her last 35 matches on the surface in Majors. That goes some way to highlighting the difficulty that Keys is faced with.
The American is back in a Grand Slam final for the first time since playing second fiddle to Sloane Stephens in the 2017 US Open and she will know that her time to claim a belated Major crown may be dwindling.
Keys has upset former Grand Slam champions Elena Rybakina and Iga Swiatek on her way to the title decider in Melbourne Park, so shouldn’t be completely discounted.
That said, Sabalenka has dropped only one set on her way to the final and she was devastating in her semifinal win over a resurgent Paula Badosa, winning 6-4 6-2 in little over an hour and a half.
This is set to be the sixth career meeting between this pair and four of those matches have gone Sabalenka’s way.
All three hard-court encounters have been won by the Belarusian and she has dropped only one set, suggesting under these quick conditions that she may be in a class of her own.
There have been very few scares for the heavy-hitting top seed in this tournament and she has dropped only one set, in her quarterfinal victory over Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, who adopted a similarly aggressive style and attempted to take the match to her.
That will be Keys’ best chance of pulling off the upset but she may also be feeling pressure in her first Grand Slam final in eight years, knowing that it may be one of her final opportunities to become a Major champion.
The American has started the season in brilliant form, winning silverware in Adelaide in her warm-up event before reeling off six wins at the Australian Open.
However, she has had to dig deep, with four of her six wins coming in a deciding set, and while her semifinal victory over Swiatek reads well, the Pole was featuring in the last four of the Australian Open for only the second time in seven tries.
Swiatek can often prove vulnerable under these quicker conditions and she had benefitted from an easy run of opponents, so taking on Sabalenka is evidently going to be far more testing for Keys.
Having also warmed up for the Australian Open with a title triumph in Brisbane, Sabalenka has suffered only three defeats in her last 38 hard-court matches.
Eleven of her last 13 wins have come in routine fashion and she can celebrate a third straight Australian Open triumph with a 2-0 victory over Keys, who may be destined to be the runner-up.
Given what is on the line, there are sure to be some early nerves for both players and while they each possess plenty of power, that can sometimes come at a cost.
Both players will be looking to utilise their big serve, and holding serve will be key to putting pressure the other player.
However, that could lead to plenty of double faults and backing Over 4.5 in the contest should reap the rewards.
Although formidable, Sabalenka can still go through lulls in the middle of her matches and when her first serve deserts her she tends to endure some double faults.
Keys, in contrast, knows she has to keep service games short and sweet if she is to upset the pre-tournament favorite, which may also leave her vulnerable when she misses a beat.
There have been five or more double faults in four of their five meetings, while Keys’ last five Australian Open victories have gone over that total.
In fact, the American’s semifinal success over Swiatek featured 11 double faults while her fourth-round win against Rybakina featured 12, showing that in crunch clashes between two elite performers that they can sometimes try to force things.
Aryna Sabalenka | -350 ML |
Madison Keys | +275 ML |
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.