St. John’s vs. Omaha: Picks, Predictions and Odds

The first round of the men’s tournament rolls on with a day one late-night matchup on Thursday between No. 15 seed Omaha and No. 2 seed St. John’s in the West Region.

The game is set for 9:45 PM ET on CBS and will take place at Amica Mutual Pavilion in Providence, Rhode Island. While Omaha enters as Summit League champions, St. John’s is riding high after winning both the Big East regular season and conference tournament.

Rick Pitino’s Red Storm are overwhelming 18-point favorites. St. John’s is one of the most relentless teams in the nation, excelling in ball pressure, transition offense and second-chance opportunities.

Meanwhile, Omaha, led by star forward Marquel Sutton, will need to rely on outside shooting and free-throw efficiency to stay competitive. Can the Mavericks keep it close, or will St. John’s dominate from the opening tip? Let’s break it down.

St. John's vs. Omaha college betting picks and predictions

St. John’s -18.5 (-110)

St. John’s enters this matchup as a dominant No. 2 seed, boasting a 30-4 record and riding a nine-game winning streak. The Red Storm have lost just once since January.

Omaha, on the other hand, had an impressive Summit League campaign but has struggled against top-tier competition. Their most notable non-conference game was an 83-51 blowout loss to Iowa State, a team that shares many similarities with St. John’s in terms of defensive pressure and physicality in the paint and in the frontcourt.

St. John’s ranks ninth in the nation in offensive rebounding, and because of that, has predictive metrics (Haslametrics’ Easy Hack Method), which expects St. John’s to, on average, generate 13 more shots than their opponent. Omaha has not faced a team with this level of physicality on the boards.

Iowa State, the best offensive rebounding team they played this season (110th per KenPom), recorded 12 offensive rebounds and outrebounded Omaha 39-27. While Omaha ranks 19th in defensive rebounding, per KenPom, the Red Storm’s relentless effort on the offensive glass should still create plenty of second-chance points, further stretching the lead as the game progresses.

St. John’s trio of stars, Kadary Richmond, RJ Luis and Zuby Ejiofor all generate massive production inside the arc. Luis and Richmond are wizards with the mid-range jumper and Ejiofor eats up second-chance opportunities and imposes his will on the low block.

While Omaha has been excellent keeping Summit League opponents away from the rim, they give up a fair amount of mid-range looks, and when they matched up with Iowa State, the Cyclones destroyed them inside, scoring 50 of their 83 points in the paint. St. John's is third nationally in percentage of points from inside the arc, and they should be able to play their game in this matchup.

St. John’s also has the No. 1 defense in the country, making life miserable for opponents inside the arc. Omaha’s leading scorer, Marquel Sutton (19.1 ppg, 8.0 rpg), thrives in the paint, but he will face an extremely tough challenge against a St. John’s defense that makes opponents shoot from range and walls up in the paint.

Most impressively, St. John’s plays without fouling much. Against the similar Iowa State, Sutton was held to just three points on 1-for-7 shooting. With St. John’s’ length and physicality, a similar struggle could be in store.

Another key factor is Omaha’s tendency to foul. The Mavericks rank outside the top 200 in foul rate, which could be a major issue against a St. John’s team that attacks the rim, especially in transition, an area where Omaha struggles defensively. With the Red Storm likely to get plenty of layups in transition and free-throw opportunities, it will be difficult for Omaha to keep up on the scoreboard.

Expect St. John’s to apply consistent pressure, force turnovers and wear Omaha down over the course of 40 minutes with speed and athleticism. The Red Storm’s energy and transition offense should lead to a convincing cover of the 18-point spread.

Over 148.0 Total Points (-110)

While St. John’s is known for its defensive intensity, this game sets up well for an Over. The Red Storm play at a fast pace, ranking among the best in transition offense. Omaha struggles in transition defense, which means St. John’s should have plenty of opportunities to score in the open floor.

Given that St. John’s thrives on quick possessions and offensive rebounding, their scoring volume should be high.

Omaha, despite being a significant underdog, does have strengths that contribute to an over. The Mavericks are an efficient three-point shooting team, knocking down 36.7 percent from beyond the arc. With St. John’s likely jumping out to an early lead and playing a style of defense that dares opponents to shoot from deep, Omaha will be forced into a three-point barrage to keep up. If JJ White (43.9 percent from three) and Tony Osburn (40.4 percent from three) can get hot, they could help push the total Over 148.0.

Additionally, Omaha’s free-throw rate (78th nationally) is another factor to consider. Even if St. John’s controls the game, Omaha’s ability to draw fouls and get to the line could help their scoring total. If the Mavericks can hit their free throws at a solid clip, they should contribute enough points to push this game over.

St. John’s’ ability to dominate inside, create extra possessions and push the pace should generate a high-scoring affair. Meanwhile, Omaha’s reliance on three-point shooting and free throws makes them an ideal team to help push this game Over the total. Expect an up-tempo game that sees plenty of scoring opportunities on both ends.

St. John's vs. Omaha odds

St. John's	-3000 ML
Omaha	+1400 ML
Spread	St. John's -18.5
Total Points	148.0 O/U

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.