USA vs. Mexico: Picks, Predictions, Odds and Player Props

For the third time in the last four runnings of the competition the USA and Mexico will meet in the final of the CONCACAF Gold Cup. 

El Tri are the defending champions having beaten Panama 1-0 in California in 2023 and they will be hoping for a repeat at NRG Stadium in Houston. 

USA vs. Mexico betting picks and predictions

Mexico to win (+150)

Defending CONCACAF Gold Cup champions Mexico will contest the final of this year’s competition against the United States in Houston. 

The USMNT will have home advantage at the NRG Stadium, but that may not be enough to swing the final in favour of Mauricio Pochettino's men.

The US made smooth progress through the group stage of the competition and the Stars and Stripes had no issues beating Haiti and Trinidad and Tobago. 

However, Haiti and Trinidad and Tobago represent low-level opposition and the US had a more difficult time against Saudi Arabia. Pochettino's men ultimately were 1-0 winners but that success came from only two shots on target and it was a pretty tepid performance. 

The USMNT needed a penalty shootout, following a 2-2 draw, to down Costa Rica in the quarterfinals and that was a fairly fortunate success. 

The Stars and Stripes moved on to face Guatemala at the last-four stage of the CONCACAF Gold Cup and were certainly second-best in that 2-1 victory. 

Pochettino’s side lost the shot count 20-12 and corner count 6-2 and their efforts on home turf up to this point have been rather unconvincing. 

Mexico have conceded only two goals in their five matches on the way to the final and both of those came in their opening group-stage contest against the Dominican Republic.

El Tri’s rock-solid defence is allowing only 1.6 shots on target per match in the CONCACAF Gold Cup and their well-drilled backline can be expected to keep the US at bay. 

Javier Aguirre’s men have the experience of lifting the trophy in California two years ago and were far more dominant than the 1-0 scoreline of their semi-final success over Honduras suggests. 

Mexico are fancied to retain the CONCACAF Gold Cup in 90 minutes. 

Mexico to win to nil (+275)

While Mexico to win is the main bet, for bigger odds it looks worthwhile to back them to win without conceding a goal. El Tri have kept four clean sheets in their five CONCACAF Gold Cup games and that’s not a surprise considering the shot stats. 

Javier Aguirre’s men only allowed Honduras a single shot on target in their semi-final clash and it had been a similar story against Saudi Arabia in the quarter-finals. 

Cesar Montes and Cesar Montes form a rock-sold centre-back pairing and are well protected by the excellent Edson Alvarez in midfield. 

The US have talented attacking performers in their ranks, but the likes of Patrick Agyemang and Malik Tillman may struggle to break down the Mexican rearguard. 

Cesar Montes to score at any time (+900)

Cesar Montes has proved a potent threat from set-pieces at the CONCACAF Gold Cup and the Lokomotiv Moscow defender looks a play to find the net in the Houston final. 

The 28-year-old found the net twice from corners in Mexico’s 2-0 group-stage victory over Suriname, while he also netted in the opening game against the Dominican Republic, and he could repeat the trick against the US. 

Mexico should have enough of the play in the final to create set-piece opportunities and Montes can make the most of any chances that come his way against a side that has shipped four goals in the last three matches. 

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USA vs. Mexico odds

USA	+230
Tie	+190
Mexico	+150

USA vs. Mexico player props

Anytime Goalscorer

Raul Jimenez (Mexico)	+210
Santiago Gimenez (Mexico)	+240
Angel Sepulveda (Mexico)	+275
Brian White ((USA)	+275
Patrick Agyemang (USA)	+275
Damion Downs (USA)	+333

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.