Toluca vs. Club America: Picks, Predictions, Odds and Player Props

Toluca will attempt to utilize home advantage in the second leg of the Liga MX Clausura final against Apertura title holders Club America on Sunday.

Diablos Rojos, unbeaten at home all season, aim to end a 15-year wait for silverware and move closer to Chivas in the all-time title race.

Antonio Mohamed’s men swept aside Tigres in the semifinals and now look to topple the league’s most dominant dynasty.

Club America, coached by Andre Jardine, are chasing history as they seek a record-equalling fourth straight Liga MX crown, having dispatched Cruz Azul to reach yet another final.

Both squads are packed with attacking talent and have been the league’s most consistent teams in 2025, finishing first and second respectively. 

Toluca’s home crowd and recent form make them slight favorites, but America’s big-game mentality and defensive solidity mean this could go either way.

A tense and controversial first leg in Mexico City finished scoreless, although Las Aguilas were unhappy with the officiating.

Club America have complained about referee Daniel Quintero after two of their penalty claims were denied and Toluca star Alexis Vega avoided expulsion for a foul on midfielder Kevin Alvarez.

Toluca vs. Club America betting picks and predictions

Half Time Result - Draw (+120)

With so much at stake and both teams boasting strong defensive records, expect a cagey opening 45 minutes.

Three of Toluca’s five playoff games have been level at the break, although only one of those was scoreless.

Mohamed’s men had thrown away leads in three consecutive games before the Clausura semifinals but overcame Tigres with the minimum of fuss, 4-1 on aggregate.

That trait could come back to haunt them again when they face a tougher challenge from Las Aguilas, who have not conceded a first-half goal in the playoffs.

The Toluca coach will demand his side keep things tight at the back in the early stages to deny the visitors a chance to quieten their fans.

Club America won 2-0 on their last visit to Toluca’s Estadio Nemesio Díez in November but both goals came after the break and it would be no surprise to see the teams tied up at the interval once more on Sunday.

Toluca to lift the trophy (-143)

Toluca’s unblemished home record and attacking momentum could make the difference in a tight contest.

Diablos have won eight of their last nine matches at Estadio Nemesio Díez, which has been a stronghold since Las Aguilas’ win there in the Apertura playoff quarterfinals.

That defeat heralded a parting of the ways with former coach Renato Paiva, whose contract was not renewed.

The Portuguese tactician delivered an acceptable win ratio in the regular season, but he lacked the playoff knowhow of his replacement.

Mohamed is vastly experienced across 11 separate coaching stints with 10 different Mexican clubs and has delivered three titles at Tijuana, Club America and Monterrey.

The Argentinean’s tactical nous and motivational abilities could make all the difference when it comes to lifting Toluca to the title.

Alexis Vega to score or assist (-110)

Toluca’s talismanic left-winger has delivered in big moments and will be a key figure in their attacking gameplan on Sunday.

The 27-year-old has scored three goals in Diablos’ last two home games, including a brace in the 3-0 win over Tigres that sealed Toluca’s place in this showpiece clash.

But it is not just his ability to finish chances that marks him out as the hosts’ dangerman because Vega has assisted almost as many goals this season.

The winger has accumulated a total of 28 goal involvements since the start of the campaign with 15 goals and 13 assists

Vega’s ability to find space and exploit defensive gaps out wide makes him particularly useful against América, a team that are solid through the middle.

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Toluca vs. Club America odds

Toluca	+135
Tie	+220
Club America	+210

Toluca vs. Club America player props

Anytime Goalscorer

Fernandes Paulinho (Toluca)	+140
Henry Martin (Club America)	+160
Alexis Vega (Toluca)	+175
Robert Morales (Toluca)	+175
Ivan Lopez (Toluca)	+200
Isaias Violante (Toluca)	+250

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.