Spain vs. Italy: Picks, Predictions, Odds and Player Props

Defending European champions Italy had to fight back from the fastest goal in European Championship history to beat Albania in their opening game, but they will need to dig even deeper if they are to take three points against Spain, who were irresistible for at least the first 45 minutes when thrashing Croatia 3-0. 

La Roja gave up their usual possession-first ideology against Vatreni - they had just 46% of the ball in that clash - in favor of a more direct attacking approach, and it is difficult to envisage the Azzurri having enough to keep Spain’s potent frontline quiet in Gelsenkirchen. 

A win for either side would all-but ensure top spot in the section, so there will be plenty on the line when the two clash on Thursday evening. 

Spain vs. Italy betting picks and predictions

Spain to win (+105)

Italy were somewhat fortunate to beat Spain in the Euro 2020 semifinals en route to lifting the trophy three years ago, as La Roja won the shot count 16-7 in that clash and dominated proceedings.

A lack of a cutting edge cost Spain that day but if their Euro 2024 opener against Croatia is anything to go by, that should not be an issue this time around.

La Roja were 3-0 up before half-time against Vatreni thanks to well-taken goals from Alvaro Morata, Fabian Ruiz and Dani Carvajal and Luis de la Fuente’s men were arguably the most impressive side in the first round of games in Germany. 

Casting off Spanish tradition by playing two natural wingers in Nico Williams and 16-year-old Lamine Yamal, De La Fuente has created a very strong team with the attacking talent to hurt any team - something Italy will be wary of. 

Spain have now scored 16 goals in their last four games, so Italy, who have conceded to Albania, Venezuela and North Macedonia in recent outings, may struggle to contain La Roja. 

The Azzurri were solid enough against Albania - from the 23rd second onwards at least - and allowed just one shot on target in the tie, but Thursday’s clash with Spain will present an entirely different level of challenge. 

La Roja won the most recent meeting between the pair 2-1, last June in a Nations League semifinal, and should be taken to get the better of Italy once more to all-but seal top spot in Group B. 

Fabian Ruiz to score or assist (+250)

While Yamal’s performance after becoming the youngest player in European Championship history grabbed most of the headlines in Spain’s opener, it was Ruiz’s role in midfield that was arguably the most pivotal to their 3-0 victory. 

The Paris Saint-Germain midfielder assisted Morata’s opener before notching a goal himself, but that should come as no surprise as he has always performed well for La Roja. 

Ruiz has scored three goals and assisted nine more in just 24 games for his national side as he is regularly granted freedom to push on by his managers - usually because he has the luxury of a generational holding midfielder behind him. 

Sergio Busquets, arguably the greatest defensive midfielder of all time, held that holding role for Spain for a long time, yet Ruiz’s freedom hasn’t been compromised by his international retirement in the slightest, as Rodri has slotted into that position seamlessly. 

Ruiz should continue to bomb forward against Italy, whose midfield trio of Jorginho, Nicolo Barella and Davide Frattesi does not offer much in the protection department, and he looks decent odds to either score or get an assist against the Azzurri. 

Alvaro Morata to score first (+450)

One of De La Fuente’s first acts as Spain boss was to name Morata as his captain, and the Atletico Madrid forward has certainly repaid his manager’s faith, scoring six goals in his 11 starts since his appointment. 

Morata got the ball rolling against Croatia with a well-taken finish and he has history against Italy too, having scored the equaliser in their Euro 2020 semi-final while also netting in La Roja’s 3-0 rout over the Azzurri in 2017. 

Spain have scored the opening goal in three of their last four matches and will look to be quick out of the blocks against Italy, with the Spanish skipper fancied to strike first again. 

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Spain vs. Italy odds

Spain	+105
Tie	+230
Italy	+290

Spain vs. Italy player props

Anytime Goalscorer

Alvaro Morata (Spain)	+187
Ferran Torres (Spain)	+225
Mato Joselu (Spain)	+225
Gianluca Scamacca (Italy)	+333
Mateo Retegui (Italy)	+333
Federico Chiesa (Italy)	+375

This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.