Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid: Picks, Predictions, Odds and Player Props

The new-look UEFA Champions League has proven to be a big hit, with many big sides - most notably 2023 winners Manchester City - failing to make the last 16, while the format has also given fans some mammoth ties in the first proper knockout round.

While Paris Saint-Germain vs. Liverpool and Bayern Munich vs. Bayer Leverkusen are massive ties, the standout fixture has to be the Madrid derby between Real and Atletico. 

The first leg is scheduled for Tuesday and while Real are favorites at the Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Atleti have shown more than enough this season to suggest they can frustrate their rivals in the Spanish capital. 

Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid betting picks and predictions

Draw (+260)

Carlo Ancelotti made the bold decision to field a full-strength side at Real Betis on Saturday but the Italian may now be regretting that choice. 

Los Blancos were aiming to retake their spot at the La Liga summit but were instead beaten 2-1 by Betis and now their star men such as Kylian Mbappe and Vinicius Jr. are set to come into Tuesday’s Madrid derby slightly fatigued. 

Of course, Real are the UEFA Champions League experts. The 15-time winners and current trophy holders were exceptional when dispatching Manchester City in the playoff round, but they are far from a sure thing against a talented Atletico side. 

Atleti have lost just one of their last 26 games and Diego Simeone’s side will fancy their chances at taking the initiative in this last-16 tie, having drawn their last three meetings with Real. 

Simeone was also able to rest some key men on Saturday, with Julian Alvarez and Marcos Llorente starting on the bench in their 1-0 win over Athletic Bilbao, and that could provide them with the edge they need to hold out for a draw.

Brahim Diaz anytime goalscorer (+400)

Another big reason for Real's defeat at Betis was the absence of Jude Bellingham.

The England star's creativity, energy and knack for scoring important goals - he was the Three Lions' saviour during the last-16 tie at Euro 2024 and was also key in Los Blancos' comeback at the Etihad during the playoff round - were sorely missed on Saturday and, suspended again for this clash, his absence is likely to be felt again. 

Brahim Diaz is likely to fill in for Bellingham and while he may not be at the same level as one of the world's best players, he is still a capable deputy and there is reason to believe he can play his part in this derby. 

The Moroccan has made the most of limited playing time lately, scoring two goals in his last 225 minutes of action, including Madrid's sole strike at Betis on Saturday. 

Diaz also has an impressive record against Atletico, netting two goals in just 186 minutes during his Madrid-derby appearances, and rates a solid anytime goalscorer bet at a big price. 

Under 4.5 cards (-120)

It is always easy to presume derbies will be heated affairs and, as a result, betting on plenty of cards can be a tempting punting strategy. 

However, history and context suggests that this Madrid derby will not be an overly feisty encounter, with the Under 4.5 cards line actually making more appeal than the Over, with both priced at the same -120 odds. 

Each of the last three head-to-heads has featured just four cards, hinting that these sides are not so full of hatred for each other as perhaps they once were. 

It is also worth remembering that Real Madrid already have plenty of players out through injury - Dani Carvajal, Dani Ceballos, Eder Militao and Jesus Vallejo are all sidelined - meaning Ancelotti will give his side clear instructions to not get suspended. 

Similarly, Simeone will know the tie will most likely be decided in the second leg next week, so his players will also be wary of picking up a suspension. 

And, on top of all that, Tuesday’s referee, Clement Turpin, has dished out an average of just two yellow cards per game during his four UEFA Champions League matches this term, again making the Under the best bet.

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Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid odds

Real Madrid	-110
Tie	+260
Atletico Madrid	+300

Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid player props

Anytime Goalscorer

Kylian Mbappe (Real Madrid)	+130
Vinicius Jr. (Real Madrid)	+150
Rodrygo (Real Madrid)	+210
Endrick (Real Madrid)	+210
Arda Guler (Real Madrid)	+250
Julian Alvarez (Atletico Madrid)	+275

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.