Portugal vs. France: Picks, Predictions, Odds and Player Props

The first day of quarterfinal action at the Euros brings a heavyweight double-header, headlined by Portugal vs. France in a rematch of the Euro 2016 final. 

After Portugal beat the French in their own backyard eight years ago, could they also end their bid for glory in Germany?

France have progressed to the last eight despite the fact their 26-man squad has scored a single goal between them, in the form of Kylian Mbappe’s penalty in Les Bleus' final group stage match. 

Meanwhile, Portugal struggled through the last 16 against a dogged Slovenia side, but they may need to up their game in the quarterfinals.

Portugal vs. France betting picks and predictions

Under 0.5 first-half goals (+137)

Portugal failed to break down Slovenia across 120 minutes in their last game and France were five minutes from heading to extra time against Belgium. While this is a heavyweight clash, little the two sides have done in Germany so far suggests this will be an enthralling encounter.

Excluding Portugal’s second-string team losing to Georgia, Roberto Martinez’s side have conceded just once at this tournament. Their three matches with their strongest side out have resulted in two games being 0-0 after 45 minutes.

This clash pits them against a French outfit that are yet to concede a goal in open play.

This is expected to be a defense-first clash, so Under 0.5 first-half goals appeals.

Portugal to have the most shots on target (+150)

While the French have a conservative reputation under Didier Deschamps, they meet a side that look quite secure at the back. Portugal have conceded just eight shots on target across their four matches in Germany so far.

Belgium conceded a lot of territory to France in the last round, but Deschamps’ side managed only two efforts on target. Martinez has built a stronger defensive system than the Belgians - his former side - during his time in charge of Portugal and his current team are also more inclined to seek out possession.

Portugal have had more of the ball in all four games, three of which saw them record at least 70% possession. They’ve out-shot teams 21-8 in efforts on target, compared to just 15-11 for the French.

With this clash considered incredibly equal, backing Portugal to manage more shots on target looks like a good value play.

An Own Goal to be scored (+1200)

Euro 2024 is on course to trump the 11 own-goals scored at the tournament three years ago. Incredibly, there have been nine at this tournament already, the same number scored across all editions of the Euros combined through Euro 2016.

Of the nine we’ve seen so far, these two sides have benefitted from two apiece.

In fact, no side in European Championship history has seen the opposition put the ball into their own net more often than France. Les Bleus have seen five own-goals go for them across the history of this competition.

Given the rate at which own goals are being scored, +1200 is a big price for one to feature in this game.

Player of the Match - N’Golo Kante (+1400)

Having been largely written off following his move to Saudi Arabia, N’Golo Kante picked up the Player of the Match award in France’s first two matches at this tournament. The former Chelsea midfielder looks back to his best, covering a lot of ground and making key tackles.

Kante has become a link between defense and attack for France, pushing into the opposition’s half with his trademark drives. He teed up Randal Kolo Muani for the shot which led to the winning own-goal in the last round, having posted great underlying assist numbers at the tournament.

Given his wins so far and how the Euros tend to dish out this award to midfielders, take Kante at a big price to land this prize once again. 

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Portugal vs. France odds

Portugal	+240
Tie	+200
France	+135

Portugal vs. France player props

Anytime Goalscorer

Kylian Mbappe (France)	+220
Cristiano Ronaldo (Portugal)	+260
Olivier Giroud (France)	+260
Marcus Thuram (France)	+260
Diogo Jota (Portugal)	+275
Goncalo Ramos (Portugal)	+275

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.