Mexico vs. Honduras: Picks, Predictions, Odds and Player Props

The 2025 CONCACAF Gold Cup semifinals bring a classic regional rivalry to Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, as nine-time champions Mexico continue their title defence against a robust Honduras side.

El Tri’s path to the last four has been almost faultless as Javier Aguirre’s men recorded wins over the Dominican Republic and Suriname that left them needing only a draw against Costa Rica to top Group A.

They then produced a perfect performance to knock Saudi Arabia out 2-0 in the quarterfinals.

Honduras began in the worst way possible in taking a 6-0 thumping against Canada in their opening game.

But Reinaldo Rueda’s men have become tougher to beat as the tournament has developed, earning group-stage wins over El Salvador and Suriname before a penalty shoot-out victory against Panama in the last eight.

This is only the second time these nations have met in a Gold Cup semifinal, with Mexico having won their previous encounter in 2011.

El Tri also thrashed Honduras 4-0 in Toluca late last year, four days after Rueda’s side had taken a 2-0 first-leg lead in their CONCACAF Nations League quarterfinal.

And with no extra time to be played if the score is tied after 90 minutes, a penalty shootout will follow to determine which nation goes through to face the United States or Guatemala in the final.

Mexico vs. Honduras Betting Picks and Predictions

Half with most goals - 2nd half (+110)

Rueda is unlikely to change the personnel or tactics of his team for this clash.

Since La Bicolor suffered that embarrassing loss in their opening group game, the Colombian coach has favoured a compact 4-5-1 formation, with disciplined players preferred over stars with flair.

Celtic winger Luis Palma was hooked at half-time against Canada and has not made a starting line-up since, while ex-Barcelona B forward Anthony 'Choco' Lozano suffered a similar fate, despite starting the tournament as Honduras' captain.

Their defence can still look leaky at times, but there is no doubt that Rueda’s tactical tweaks have made them harder to score against.

It has also taken the edge off Honduras as a counter-attacking side.

La Bicolor produced only three shots on target in the 1-1 draw with Panama in the quarterfinals and scored with their only two goalbound efforts in the 2-1 group stage win over Curacao.

The number of goals in Wednesday's semi-final feels entirely dependent on Mexico and how early are able to make a breakthrough.

El Tri have not been noted for making fast starts this summer. Only one of their seven tournament goals so far came before the break and that one hit the back of the net in the 44th minute.

It looks likely that the first 45 minutes of this match will be largely played out in Honduras' half, with Mexico facing a low block with nine outfield players barring their way to goal.

But the introduction of fresh legs off the bench when Honduras' starters tire in the second half could make the difference and lead to a higher-scoring second stanza.

Mexico to win to nil (-120)

Mexico has dominated each of their matches in the tournament, enjoying higher shares of possession and producing better goalscoring chances than all four of their opponents.

Costa Rica and Saudi Arabia have been their toughest tests so far and they proved superior in both even if they could not find a goal against the Ticos.

Aguirre’s side had 70% possession in that final group stage match, registered four shots on target to zero and clearly won the expected goals battle 1.45-0.44.

They come into this semifinal fresh off allowing the lowest expected goals number (0.02 vs. Saudi Arabia) in this tournament since records of that nature began in 2019. 

Goalkeeper Luis Angel Malagon has kept three clean sheets behind defensive pillars Cesar Montes and Johan Vasquez.

And, with Honduras having failed to score in seven of their past nine matches against El Tri, it looks worth backing Mexico to win without conceding in this contest.

Read more betting picks and predictions for soccer on site.

Mexico vs. Honduras odds

Mexico	-300
Draw	+400
Honduras	+850

Mexico vs. Honduras player props

Anytime Goalscorer

Raul Jimenez (Mexico)	+100
Santiago Gimenez (Mexico)	+120
Angel Sepulveda (Mexico)	+140
Alexis Vega (Mexico)	+160
Julian Quinones (Mexico)	+160
Cesar Huerta (Mexico)	+175
Alexy Vega (Honduras)	+400

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.