Los Angeles FC face Inter Miami in an all-MLS quarter-final of the CONCACAF Champions Cup with the first leg to take place at BMO Stadium on Wednesday evening.
The Black and Gold are bidding to reproduce the run to the final of this competition two years ago, which ultimately ended in defeat to Club Leon.
But Steve Cherundolo’s side are not in great form right now after losing four of their last five matches in all competitions.
The Herons crashed out to Monterrey at the quarterfinal stage last year when Lionel Messi missed the first leg through injury and will be desperate to avoid the same fate.
Javier Mascherano’s side welcomed the Argentinean back to their ranks on Saturday as Messi scored their winner against Philadelphia Union within two minutes of stepping off the bench.
Reports suggest the 37-year-old will be fit enough to start in Los Angeles on Wednesday as the South Florida club look to extend their seven-game winning streak.
Inter Miami are not the favorites to win the first leg, which seems strange given the contrasting recent fortunes of the two clubs.
LAFC have lost four of their last five games and found themselves 3-0 down to MLS new-boys San Diego FC before they woke up and started playing on Sunday.
Defensively, they were a shambles in the first half with all three of the goals they conceded being avoidable.
The first came from a set-piece floated into the box and the second stemmed from an almighty blunder by their World Cup-winning goalkeeper Hugo Lloris, who simply dropped the ball at the feet of San Diego’s Onni Valakari.
But the third goal, which came from a smart counter-attack down the right, looked like something straight out of the Herons’ playbook.
Mascherano’s men have been deadly in transition this season, utilizing the pace of their wingers and the vision of their midfielders — together with Messi.
If Inter Miami can lure Cherundolo’s team into one of their traps on Wednesday, then look for the Herons’ pacy wingers Fafa Picault or Tadeo Allende to exploit the space behind their backline.
The visitors have won their last seven in a row for a reason — they have been more clinical than their opponents in every game — and that should set Messi and co on the way to another road win in Los Angeles.
The Herons didn’t keep that many clean sheets last season under Tata Martino, but we are already seeing how Mascherano’s tweaks have made them harder to score against.
Inter Miami have conceded only five goals in their first five MLS regular-season matches and recorded three shutouts in their four Concacaf Champions Cup clashes.
The Herons’ expected goals against was the fourth-worst in the Eastern Conference last season, which makes it even more remarkable that they finished eight points clear at the top.
So far this year, Mascherano’s men have the second-lowest xGA in the East.
They are capable of cutting the supply lines to LAFC’s forwards, who have not looked to be on the same page for most of the early-season play.
Therefore, it could be worth backing the Herons to win with a clean sheet too.
If the Herons can keep the back door closed, as they have done in three of their four matches in this competition, then the question arises of how many goals there will be in the clash.
Maschareno’s side have got the capacity to score multiple goals whenever they play, particularly with Messi in the lineup, but they do not need to risk throwing players forward if they have a lead in Los Angeles.
The coach may even take Messi off once a lead has been established in order to protect him for the second leg
Both of Inter Miami’s away trips in this competition have yielded fewer than three goals and it would be no surprise if this one did too.
LAFC scored twice at the weekend to give the scoreline a respectable look, but one of those was a speculative long-range effort that dipped under the crossbar and the other was helped, in part, by the San Diego goalkeeper completely losing his bearings.
Cherundolo’s side managed only three shots on target, despite dominating possession in their 1-0 defeat to Austin the last time they played at home.
Another anemic display like that should go a long way to ensuring fewer than three goals are scored on Wednesday.
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Los Angeles FC | +160 |
Tie | +240 |
Inter Miami | +170 |
Denis Bouanga (LAFC) | +110 |
Lionel Messi (Inter Miami) | +150 |
Luis Suarez (Inter Miami) | +175 |
Olivier Giroud (LAFC) | +225 |
Jeremy Ebobisse (LAFC) | +250 |
Leo Afonso (Inter Miami) | +275 |
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.