Houston Dynamo vs. Inter Miami: Picks, Predictions, Odds and Player Props

Lionel Messi will be missing when Inter Miami go in search of their first MLS win of the season against Houston Dynamo at Shell Energy Stadium on Sunday night.

The Herons are resting the eight-time Ballon d’Or winner amid a hectic program of fixtures for the Supporters’ Shield holders.

He scored a stunning opener on his wife’s birthday on Wednesday to ease his team into the last-16 of the Concacaf Champions Cup after a 4-1 aggregate win over Sporting Kansas City.

Javier Mascherano could be tempted to make multiple changes to his line-up in Texas, where the hosts will be looking to bounce back from their 2-1 defeat at home to interstate rivals FC Dallas last Saturday.

Ben Olsen’s side led through Amine Bassi’s close-range header before a sloppy pass gifted Dallas a leveller and a defence-splitting ball earned the visitors the win.

Houston Dynamo vs. Inter Miami betting picks and predictions

Inter Miami to win (+200)

Orange Crush finished fifth in the Western Conference last year and went out in the first round of the playoffs after two tight games against the Seattle Sounders.

Olsen lost key centre-back Micael, who was sold to Palmeiras a few days before their 2025 home opener, and his plans were not helped when experienced defender Erik Sviatchenko dropped out after picking up a knock in training.

That meant former Philadelphia Union academy player Obafemi Awodesu was plugged into the Dynamo defence for his MLS debut last weekend.

But it was central defensive partner Ethan Bartlow who looked the shakier of the two at the heart of Olsen’s rearguard, as he gift-wrapped the equaliser to Petar Musa with an awful pass.

With Sviatchenko expected to be missing again this Sunday, the Dynamo coach will have to pin his hopes on the same defensive duo again.

That could hand the initiative to the Herons, who posted the best away record in MLS last year with 11 road wins in 18 games.

Their record with and without Messi last season also suggests they can earn their first three points of the current campaign.

Inter Miami went 12-3-4 when Messi was absent from their starting line-up and posted a 12-2-4 record when he was in the side.

And their win percentage away from home of 63.6% without the Argentinean was slightly higher than their record of winning 62.5% of road games when he began up front.

Over 3.5 goals (+150)

Backing goals whenever Inter Miami play is not a new strategy for betting, but it should continue to deliver after their recent change of coach.

Mascherano’s men drew 2-2 with NYCFC in their home opener last weekend and then beat Sporting Kansas City 3-1 in the Concacaf Champions Cup on Wednesday.

Four of their five preseason games also featured at least four goals and that looks like an attainable mark for both teams in Sunday’s contest.

Orange Crush can cause the Herons problems with their height at set-pieces and could look to target Inter Miami’s small full-backs with crosses to the back post.

Their defensive set-up remains vulnerable, however, with both goals conceded against Dallas being avoidable.

Tadeo Allende to score at anytime (+375)

In Messi’s absence, Luis Suarez becomes the obvious anytime goalscorer candidate for the Herons.

The Uruguayan scored 20 MLS regular-season goals last year - the same number as Messi - and was on target in the club’s Concacaf Champions Cup win over Sporting Kansas City in midweek.

But 12 of Suarez’s total of 21 goals in 2024 came in games he started alongside Messi and a large chunk of them were assisted by the Argentinean.

The ex-Barcelona star’s absence could have a greater effect on Suarez’s opportunities than the rest of the team because of their long-established connection as former Nou Camp teammates.

It may be better to look for value elsewhere in the goalscorer markets with pacy Herons winger Tadeo Allende capable of following up his goal against Kansas City with another.

The on-loan Celta Vigo player is with the Herons on a one-year ‘prove-it’ loan deal and the more goals he scores, the more likely it is that Chase Stadium becomes his permanent home.

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Houston Dynamo vs. Inter Miami odds

Houston Dynamo	+115 ML
Tie	+290 ML
Inter Miami	+200 ML

Houston Dynamo vs. Inter Miami player props

Anytime Goalscorer

Ezequiel Ponce (Houston Dynamo)	+162
Luis Suarez (Inter Miami)	+187
Ibrahim Aliyu (Houston Dynamo)	+220
Stephen Annor Gyamfi (Houston Dynamo)	+220
Amine Bassi (Houston Dynamo)	+275
Gabriel Segal (Houston Dynamo)	+275

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.