Ecuador vs. Brazil: Picks, Predictions, Odds and Player Props

Ecuador has been the story of the World Cup qualifying campaign so far, sitting second in the 10-team table and closing in on a place at the 2026 World Cup with only four games left to play.

The expanded tournament has removed some of the tension from what was the toughest qualifying campaign in international football. The top six South American teams qualify, so there’s little cause for concern for fourth-placed Brazil.

However, the Brazilians’ quest to return to the summit of the world game after a 23-year wait amps up the pressure for them. Having struggled throughout this campaign - particularly on the road - they face a real test against a strong Ecuador side. 

Ecuador vs. Brazil betting picks and predictions

Ecuador Tie No Bet (+162)

Ecuador has both the second-best home and away record in this qualifying campaign, behind Argentina. Away games in South America are incredibly difficult, proven by the fact that Ecuador’s nine points from seven games is the second-best record across the continent. 

Brazil has suffered four defeats in seven trips in this cycle, including a 4-1 drubbing at the hands of World Cup winners Argentina. The Selecao have scored just six times on their travels, conceding almost twice as many.

Brazil’s trip to Bolivia and home meeting with bottom-side Chile in September should see them safely through, but pressure is growing following home and away losses to Argentina. 

Ecuador is unbeaten at home in this campaign, scoring 10 times across its seven matches while conceding only twice. The hosts head into the clash having won four of their last five matches at home, while Brazil has lost four of its last six qualifying trips.

Ecuador’s young squad is on the rise in world football and can continue the climb with a big win this week. Back the hosts to close in on a place at the World Cup with a victory.

La Tri are +162 in the Tie No Bet market, which offers a refund if their unbeaten home stretch continues with a draw.

Ecuador to win 1-0 (+700)

All but one of Ecuador’s victories in this campaign have come by a single goal. The hosts have a solid defensive structure, while the three goalkeepers they have played with in this campaign have a combined save percentage of 87.8%.

Brazil’s scoring woes on the road point to this being low-scoring, as does the fact that both teams to score is priced at +125. Going against goals seems smart here, given the hosts have kept five clean sheets across their last six at home.

Brazil has lost to nil in visits to Paraguay and Uruguay in this campaign, so Ecuador should be capable of another strong defensive display. Sebastian Beccacece's men don’t tend to score many goals, so a 1-0 win for Ecuador is the stand-out correct score prediction at +700.

Moises Caicedo to be booked (+300)

Moises Caicedo has been a big part of Ecuador’s rise, but the Chelsea midfielder will have a lot of work to do in this clash with a Brazil side under the spotlight.

Caicedo has been given three bookings in this qualifying campaign, which have each come in his previous three appearances.

Caicedo was booked in half of Ecuador’s Copa America games last summer, while he was cautioned in two of their three warm-up friendlies. 

Despite those numbers, Caicedo is a decent option in the card betting. The midfielder is available at +300 to have his name taken in a crunch clash for his country. 

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Ecuador vs. Brazil odds

Ecuador	+300
Draw	+200
Brazil	+110

Ecuador vs. Brazil player props

Anytime Goalscorer

Richarlison (Brazil)	+187
Enner Valencia (Ecuador)	+250
Vinicius Jr. (Brazil)	+275
Raphinha (Brazil)	+300
Estevao (Brazil)	+333
Matheus Cunha (Brazil)	+350

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.