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Croatia vs. Italy: Picks, Predictions, Odds and Player Props

Croatia needs to get a result over the defending champions to keep its hopes of reaching the knockouts alive but Italy can keep it tight to ensure second place in the group.

Croatia is facing a real uphill battle to qualify for the knockout stages after following up a 3-0 defeat at the hands of Spain with a disappointing 2-2 draw with Albania, who many thought would fail to even earn a point in Group B. 

The Blazers are sitting on just one point after those results and anything less than a win in their third game would see the 2022 World Cup semi-finalists eliminated altogether. 

A clash with Italy in Leipzig on Monday will decide their fate, and the defending European champions are unlikely to make things easy for their opponents as they look to secure second place in the section.

An Italy loss would see Croatia leapfrog them and would leave them vulnerable to elimination should Albania beat Spain. 

It promises to be an intriguing spectacle at the Red Bull Arena with so much on the line and we have you covered with our three best bets for the crucial Group B clash. 

Croatia vs. Italy betting picks and predictions

Tie (+220)

Italy was lucky to lose by only one goal against Spain on matchday two as La Roja dominated the match from start to finish, winning the shot count 20-4 and the expected goals 2.05-0.21. 

The Azzurri were poor in that clash, but it would be bold to rule out the defending champions finding their feet sooner rather than later.

It may be a slightly altered squad from the one that lifted the trophy three years ago, but some key players such as Nicolo Barella and Jorginho still remain, and Luciano Spalletti led Napoli to the Serie A title just last year. 

On paper, their squad is far stronger than Croatia’s, with Gianluigi Donnarumma a top-level goalkeeper and Gianluca Scamacca a more polished striker than any of Zlatko Dalic’s options, and they have more than enough to win. 

However, a draw would be enough for them to qualify - likely in second place with Albania unlikely to beat Spain - and we could see a return to the Italian’s traditional Catenaccio style that prioritizes defensive solidity in Leipzig. 

Italy may be happy to sit in and absorb the pressure as it looks to achieve an all-important point. Donnarumma made eight saves against Spain - a tournament high thus far - and he could be vital in securing a draw for the Italians. 

Croatia has been poor in both of their matches, so it is hard to envisage the Blazers suddenly finding an extra gear to beat the Azzurri, so backing the tie could prove to be a profitable play.

The last three meetings between these sides have finished level and the draw has been the most common result in their nine clashes, occurring five times. 

Back the tie in Leipzig, a result which would see Croatia bow out of Euro 2024 much earlier than expected. 

Under 2.5 goals (-110)

With a draw expected due to the likelihood of Italy shutting up shop early on and playing for the point, backing a low-scoring game could also be a smart play. 

Croatia had to work hard for its two goals against Albania while the same could be said for Italy against the same opponent.

There is a lack of consistent firepower in both squads, as shown by each failing to net against a Spain team who conceded to the likes of Scotland and Georgia in qualifying, and it seems unlikely the goals will flow in Leipzig. 

The last four meetings between the two have seen under 2.5 goals, with each of the last three finishing 1-1, while four of the Azzurri’s last five games have seen the same bet land. 

Under 2.5 Total Goals seems a likely outcome and if you fancy combining the two selections, a correct score bet on 0-0 or 1-1 at respective odds of +900 and +550 also makes appeal. 

Josip Sutalo to be booked (+400)

Should Croatia be drawing, or even losing, for a long period in this game, tempers could flair and the cards could flow in Leipzig. 

Josip Sutalo was lucky not to be carded against Albania after committing numerous fouls and notably stopping a counter-attack by bringing down an Albania player on the halfway line. 

The centre-back will have his hands full with Scamacca while the late runs of Barella from midfield and trickiness of Federico Chiesa could also cause him issues. 

Sutalo has made five fouls at the tournament already and a first booking is surely going to arrive soon. 

Read more betting picks and predictions for soccer on site.

Croatia vs. Italy odds







Croatia vs. Italy player props

Player to be Booked

Marcelo Brozovic (Croatia)


Riccardo Calafiori (Italy)


Michael Folorunsho (Italy)


Marin Pongracic (Croatia)


Gianluca Mancini (Italy)


Giovanni Di Lorenzo (Italy)


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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.

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