No. 19 SMU opens its season with an immediate ACC test when the Mustangs head to Doak Campbell Stadium to face Florida State on Monday at 7:30 PM ET.
The Mustangs are coming off a somewhat disappointing 9-4 season that still included a 24-19 victory over Arizona in the Holiday Bowl.
Veteran quarterback Kevin Jennings, who threw for 3,641 yards, 26 touchdowns and completed 66.1% of his passes, returns.
Florida State, off a forgettable 5-7 season, already has a game under its belt. The Seminoles opened last week with a 34-17 victory over New Mexico State, piling up 419 total yards, of which 217 came on the ground.
SMU won the schools' only previous meeting with a 42-16 blowout in Dallas in 2024. Jennings threw three touchdown passes in that game as the Mustangs earned their first ACC victory.
Florida State is 7-17 over the past two seasons, but did average 33 points and 472.1 yards per game in 2025. More importantly, the Seminoles dealt a ranked Alabama squad a devastating early-season setback at the Doak this time last year, winning 31-17.
SMU vs. Florida State betting picks and predictions
SMU -2.5 (-125)
This is a fairly short number for a ranked SMU team returning one of the most productive quarterbacks in the ACC.
Jennings gives the Mustangs the most proven player at the game's most important position. He has thrown for 6,886 yards and 49 touchdowns in two years as SMU’s starting signal caller.
SMU averaged 32.2 points and 417 yards per game while finishing 6-2 in ACC play. The Mustangs also return an experienced offensive line led by Joshua Bates and PJ Williams, both of whom were selected to the preseason All-ACC team.
Florida State's defense was impressive against New Mexico State's running game, but the Aggies still completed 26 passes for 272 yards and converted 10 of 17 third downs. That could be a problem against Jennings and SMU's superior passing attack.
Florida State did find plenty to like offensively in its opener. Stanford transfer Ashton Daniels completed 17 of 27 passes for 202 yards, one touchdown and one interception in his Seminoles debut while rushing for another 30 yards and a score.
Running back Ousmane Kromah was even better, carrying 14 times for a career-high 115 yards with an 8.2 yards-per-carry average, while Samuel Singleton Jr. produced 96 yards from scrimmage and scored two touchdowns.
The Seminoles also have one of the nation's top receivers in Duce Robinson. The senior caught 56 passes for 1,081 yards and six touchdowns last season after transferring from USC, earning first-team All-ACC and third-team All-America honors.
But SMU has the more experienced quarterback and already knows it can beat Florida State. Jennings threw for 254 yards and three touchdowns when the Mustangs dominated this matchup two years ago.
Look for SMU's passing game to eventually create enough explosive plays for the Mustangs to cover the 2.5-point spread.
Over 53.5 (-110)
Florida State showed in its opener that it can run the football effectively, and that should keep the Seminoles from becoming one-dimensional against SMU. They also went 6-for-6 (4 TDs, 2 FGs) in the red zone after finishing 95th in the FBS in that category last season.
The bigger concern is whether either defense can consistently get off the field.
Florida State allowed New Mexico State to throw for 272 yards and convert nearly 59% of its third downs. SMU, meanwhile, allowed 283.2 passing yards per game last season despite holding opponents to 20.5 points per contest.
Jennings directs an SMU attack that scored at least 30 points eight times last season, while Florida State brings back Robinson and now has a productive running game featuring Kromah and Singleton.
Florida State also averaged 33 points per game last season despite its losing record, while SMU averaged more than 32.
SMU vs. Florida State odds
SMU | -150 |
Florida State | +125 |
Spread | SMU -2.5 |
Total Points | O/U 53.5 |
SMU vs. Florida State Player Props
Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Kendrick Raphael (SMU) | -150 |
Ousmane Kromah (FLO) | -110 |
Samuel Singleton Jr. (FLO) | +115 |
Derrick McFall (SMU) | +120 |
Ashton Daniels (FLO) | +145 |
Duce Robinson (FLO) | +155 |
This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
