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2025 Oscars Best Picture Odds: The Brutalist favored

The countdown to the 97th Annual Academy Awards is on as the 2025 Oscar Nominations tell us who will be competing on Hollywood’s Biggest Night.

As always, the biggest prize of the night on Sunday, March 3rd will be Best Picture. This year’s race is one of the more unpredictable Best Picture races in recent memory, with four films at 10/1 or better to take home the top prize.

2025 Oscars Best Picture Odds

The Brutalist

-120

Emilia Perez

+500

Conclave

+500

Anora

+700

A Complete Unknown

+1600

Wicked

+2500

The Substance

+2500

Dune: Part Two

+3300

Nickel Boys

+4000

I'm Still Here

+6600

Coming in as the favorite is Brady Corbet’s The Brutalist at -120. The A24 film features a mammoth three-hour and 35-minute runtime, and stars Adrian Brody as a visionary architect who immigrates to America from post-WWII Europe.

The film has nominations in some key spots, including Best Cinematography and Best Original Screenplay, among others. Corbet is a huge favorite at -500 to land Best Director, and Brody is the odds-on favorite to become just the 11th man to win two Best Actor Oscars in his career - he also won in 2002 for The Pianist.  Its 10 nominations are tied with Wicked for the second most of any movie at this year’s Oscars.

When the market opened back in September, The Brutalist was the favorite at +250.

The film with the most nominations at this year’s Academy Awards is Jacques Audiard’s Emilia Perez. The Spanish-language French film broke the record for most nominations ever by an international feature, and is tied for the second most nominations in history with 13.

Emilia Perez is +500 to win Best Picture and features Zoe Saldaña, Karla Sofía Gascón and Selena Gomez. Saldaña (Best Supporting Actress) and Sofía Gascón (Best Actress) both received nominations for their performances. Sofía Gascón is the first openly trans actress ever nominated for an acting Oscar. Audiard was also nominated for Best Director.

The musical crime film took home the Golden Globe for Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy in January. Netflix is hoping Emilia Perez can become its first-ever Best Picture winner at the Oscars.

Tied at +500 is Conclave. The Ralph Fiennes-led film is adapted from a 2016 novel that follows a papal conclave that is organized to elect the next Pope. Nominations include Fiennes for Best Actor in a Leading Role, Isabella Rossellini for Best Actress in a Supporting Role, and Best Adapted Screenplay. The film’s director, Edward Berger, was notably not nominated for Best Director.

Rounding out the list of films with 10/1 odds or better is Sean Baker’s Anora at +700. Winner of the 2024 Palme d'Or for the best film at the Cannes Film Festival, Anora stars Mikey Madison in a break-out role. Madison is currently the second-favorite to win Best Actress in a Leading Role at +137. Other nominations include Yura Borisov for Best Supporting Actor, Baker for Best Director (his first-ever nomination), and Best Original Screenplay.

Timothée Chalamet’s transformative role playing Bob Dylan helped lead A Complete Unknown to a Best Picture nomination and the film currently sits at +1600 to win. It’s hard to talk about the film without talking about Chalamet’s performance as the folk-music icon. The 29-year-old is now the youngest two-time Best Actor nominee since James Dean, and a win would make him the youngest Best Actor winner in history.

The biopic also led to two other acting nominations: Edward Norton in Supporting Actor and Monica Barbaro in Supporting Actress. Director James Mangold received a surprise nomination for Best Director.

Wicked (+2500) is led by stellar performances from Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande, both of whom received acting nominations. Wicked is tied with The Brutalist for the second most nominations at this year’s Oscars with 10.

After The Substance - also+2500 to win Best Picture - left theatres, it became the streaming service Mubi’s highest-grossing film ever. It is led by Demi Moore, who is the odds-on favorite to win Best Actress at -138. Moore became the favorite after taking home the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy. 

Dune: Part Two (+3300) was the popular movie review app Letterboxd’s highest-rated movie of the year. The sequel to 2021’s Dune made over $700 million at the worldwide box office, as did the hit musical film Wicked.

Rounding out the top 10 are a couple of longshots.

Nickel Boys comes in at +4000. Directed and written by RaMell Ross, a former Georgetown Hoyas point guard, Nickel Boys is shot in a first-person point-of-view. It also received a nomination for Best Adapted Screenplay.

At +6600, the biggest surprise Best Picture nomination at this year’s Academy Awards is I’m Still Here. The Brazilian film is also nominated for Best International Feature. It is led by Fernanda Torres, who is nominated for Best Actress. The first-time Oscar nominee won the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama for her performance in the film.

The 97th Academy Awards take place on Sunday, March 2nd at 8 PM ET.

Odds available in select states. Odds displayed within this article were correct at the time of writing and are subject to change.

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