Ohio State heads to Iowa City on Saturday for one of the toughest road environments in college football, with undefeated Iowa waiting at Kinnick Stadium and College GameDay on campus for the first time since 2006.
The Buckeyes are coming off a 42-19 win over Illinois, while Iowa improved to 4-0 with a dramatic 20-19 road win at Michigan.
This matchup creates a fascinating contrast between Ohio State’s elite passing game and an Iowa team that still wants to win with defense, field position and physical football.
The spread is large for a ranked road matchup, but Ohio State may have enough of a talent edge to eventually create separation.
Ohio State vs. Iowa betting picks and predictions
Ohio State -14.5 (-105)
Julian Sayin’s recent record against ranked teams will get attention, but his last three losses against AP-ranked opponents came against Indiana in last year’s Big Ten Championship Game, Miami in the College Football Playoff and Texas earlier this season. Those are all top-five teams that are national-title caliber.
Iowa is excellent at what it does, but it does not have the same offensive ceiling.
Against Power Four opponents, the Hawkeyes have averaged just 1.38 points per drive with a 34.7% success rate and negative EPA per snap. Their passing game has improved under Hank Brown, but it remains conservative, and the rushing attack has yet to produce a single explosive run through four games.
That is a problem if Ohio State gets ahead early. The Buckeyes’ defense has not been dominant against Power Four competition, but Texas and Illinois both present more explosive offensive problems than Iowa.
Iowa will need Kamari Moulton to finally break loose, plus likely some help from special teams or turnovers. The Hawkeyes have built their identity around that formula, but Ohio State has only four turnovers all season, and three came from backup quarterbacks.
Sayin is coming off 367 passing yards and four touchdowns against Illinois, while Jeremiah Smith exploded for 217 yards and four scores.
Iowa is still strong defensively, but its pass defense has been less dominant than usual. The Hawkeyes rank 66th nationally in EPA per pass and 38th in pass success rate allowed, while Ohio State ranks fourth in EPA per pass and third in passing success rate.
Expect Iowa to try and make this ugly early but, eventually, Smith and Ohio State’s superior passing game should break the game open.
Over 45.5 total points (-110)
Taking an Over in Iowa City rarely feels comfortable, but this matchup should create more scoring opportunities than the total suggests.
The Buckeyes rank seventh nationally in offensive success rate and have already shown they can create explosive plays through the air. Iowa’s defense is good enough to force Ohio State to work, but Michigan still moved the ball effectively last week and finished with 429 total yards despite scoring only 19 points.
Ohio State is far more efficient at finishing drives, but its run defense did allow 199 rushing yards to Illinois last week.
Ohio State’s defense has also allowed points on 40% of its possessions against Power Four teams, while surrendering 4.2 points per red-zone trip.
Iowa does not need to suddenly become explosive to contribute to this points total. If the Hawkeyes can score 13 to 17 points and avoid falling completely behind the chains, Ohio State should be capable of carrying the rest.
A 34-14 type of game gets us over the number.
Kamari Moulton Anytime Touchdown (+125)
Moulton has not had the start many expected, but Ohio State has been much more vulnerable against the run than through the air in its two Power Four games. The Buckeyes have allowed negative EPA overall, but their defensive structure has required extra pressure at times, and the ground game has been the clearest area opponents can attack.
The Hawkeyes cannot afford to put Brown in obvious passing situations against Ohio State’s defensive backs, and they certainly do not want this game turning into a shootout. That should mean plenty of carries, especially near the goal line.
Iowa also has a strong history of manufacturing scoring opportunities through field position and special teams, which can create short-yardage touchdown chances even if the offense is not consistently moving the ball.
The concern is that Iowa’s running game has been painfully inefficient so far, and several of its biggest plays against Michigan came from deflections or special teams rather than offensive execution.
Still, if Iowa reaches the red zone, Moulton is the player most likely to finish a drive.
Read more college football picks and predictions on site.
Ohio State vs. Iowa odds
Ohio State | -600 |
Iowa | +450 |
Spread | Ohio State -14.5 |
Total | O/U 45.5 |
Ohio State vs. Iowa player props
Anytime Touchdown
Jeremiah Smith (Ohio State) | -250 |
Bo Jackson (Ohio State) | -155 |
Kamari Moulton (Iowa) | +125 |
Ja'Kobi Jackson (Ohio State) | +125 |
Devin McCuin (Ohio State) | +190 |
Tony Diaz (Iowa) | +260 |
Read the latest college football news on site.
This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
