Notre Dame takes its unbeaten record to West Lafayette on Saturday for a Week 4 matchup against a Purdue team that has been entertaining offensively and disastrous defensively.
The Boilermakers have scored at least 36 points in all three games, including 38 against UCLA and 36 against Wake Forest, but they have dropped back-to-back contests after opening the year with a win.
Notre Dame has been far more controlled. The Fighting Irish beat Wisconsin 41-13, Rice 52-0 and Michigan State 27-10, leaning on efficient quarterback play, methodical drives and one of the best defenses in the country.
Purdue has not seen anything close to this Notre Dame defense yet. At the same time, Notre Dame may not have faced an offense as high octane as Purdue's.
Notre Dame vs. Purdue betting picks and predictions
Notre Dame -27.5 (-120)
UCLA piled up 645 yards in a 52-38 win last week and converted 11 of 14 third downs. Wake Forest also generated 411 yards while converting five of 11 third downs.
Purdue has forced only one turnover all season, and that came against Indiana State.
That is a bad formula against a Notre Dame offense that takes care of the football and consistently stays on schedule.
CJ Carr has completed 72.6 per cent of his passes for 726 yards with six touchdowns and no interceptions. Notre Dame also ranks near the top of the country in offensive efficiency, and this Purdue defense sits near the bottom nationally in EPA against both the pass and the run.
The one concern is Notre Dame's rushing explosiveness, as the Fighting Irish are one of only two Power Four teams without a run of 20 yards or more this season, and they averaged only 3.7 yards per carry against Michigan State.
That is a major step down from the explosiveness they had in the backfield last season.
Still, Purdue just allowed UCLA to rush for 369 yards and surrendered 21 plays of at least 14 yards.
If Notre Dame cannot create explosives on the ground here, that becomes a larger concern going forward.
The other side of the matchup is just as important.
Purdue quarterback Ryan Browne has thrown for 1,024 yards, fifth-most nationally, with seven touchdowns and only one interception. He also owns an 82.6 QBR.
But Browne has already been sacked seven times, including twice by Indiana State.
That offensive line could be overwhelmed by Notre Dame's front. If the Irish can frustrate Browne early, force Purdue into long-yardage situations and eliminate the explosive plays that have carried the Boilermakers, this game could turn quickly.
Notre Dame has outscored opponents 48-3 in second halves this season. That finishing ability makes laying a big number more comfortable.
Over 58.5 total points (-105)
Notre Dame's defense is elite, but Purdue has shown enough offensive ability to make me believe the Boilermakers can contribute something.
Browne has been productive, Fame Ijeboi has rushed for 248 yards and six touchdowns, and Asaad Waseem leads Purdue with 20 catches for 321 yards.
The Boilermakers do not need to score 30 for this Over to cash. Notre Dame may be capable of doing most of the heavy lifting itself.
Purdue has allowed 90 points over the last two weeks, and its inability to get off the field has been a recurring problem. If Notre Dame can sustain drives and avoid turnovers, 40-plus points is more than realistic.
Purdue's best chance to contribute comes early, before Notre Dame's pass rush fully takes control.
The Boilermakers have enough skill talent to create a few explosive plays, and Browne has been one of the most productive quarterbacks in the country through three games.
And if Purdue falls behind, that may actually help the Over too.
A pass-heavy comeback script creates more possessions, more clock stoppages and more opportunities for Notre Dame's defense to create short fields.
Something in the 45-17 or 48-17 range makes sense.
CJ Carr 250+ Passing Yards (+110)
CJ Carr gets a Purdue defense that just allowed 645 total yards and has struggled badly against the pass.
The Boilermakers rank near the bottom of the country in passing efficiency metrics, and UCLA consistently created open space against them.
Notre Dame will certainly try to establish the run, especially after another underwhelming rushing performance against Michigan State.
But Purdue's weakness on the back end creates too many opportunities for Carr to ignore.
If the Irish hit a few early play-action throws, this number can move quickly.
Micah Gilbert is coming off an eight-catch, 170-yard performance against Michigan State and gives Carr a legitimate downfield option, even if Notre Dame's offense has generally been methodical.
If Purdue scores enough to keep Notre Dame aggressive through three quarters, Carr should have ample volume. If Notre Dame builds a lead, he may already be near 250 yards by then.
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Notre Dame vs. Purdue odds
Notre Dame | -6600 |
Purdue | +1650 |
Spread | Notre Dame -27.5 |
Total | O/U 58.5 |
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
