We are down to just four teams who still have a shot at winning the NFL Championship, with the Washington Commanders facing the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC Championship game.
The playoffs have largely been dominated by the favorites, but one underdog that has won outright in consecutive games — shocking the NFL world in the process — is the Commanders.
Washington knocked off the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the Wild Card Round, before following that up with a massive upset victory over the top-seeded Detroit Lions in the Divisional Round.
Now, the Commanders get the opportunity to go to Lincoln Financial Field and defeat Philadelphia in what would complete one of the biggest string of upset victories in recent NFL playoff history.
The Eagles probably have the best roster remaining in the postseason, but Philadelphia is clearly suffering from a lack of quality quarterback play, thanks to the ongoing struggles of Jalen Hurts since returning from a concussion.
From a number’s perspective, it’s hard to get there with backing the Eagles at this price. For starters, these teams just met in Philadelphia back on November 14 and the Eagles closed as a 4.5-point favorite in that contest.
While the Commanders have clearly gotten much better since that game, the Eagles are certainly not playing their best football right now.
With that in mind, there’s no reason that this line shouldn’t be adjusted a bit, especially since Jayden Daniels was hurt in that previous meeting and Hurts has struggled mightily in this postseason.
Instead, we’re getting even more value on the Commanders in a postseason where they’ve already exceeded oddsmakers expectations in two consecutive games.
From a matchup perspective, Washington is certainly going to struggle to stop the Eagles elite rushing attack. However, that’s exactly what the Rams defense struggled with in the divisional round matchup, and they were still able to cover the number despite surrendering over 250 yards on the ground.
The Eagles passing game certainly can’t be counted on to succeed, as Hurts is struggling, having not thrown for 150 yards in either of the playoff games to this point.
Washington’s ball-hawking secondary could certainly force at least one turnover in this game, especially after intercepting Jared Goff three times last week.
As long as weather isn’t a major issue in this game, the advantage that the Commanders will have is Daniels’ mobility and ability to create big plays out of structure, something that we saw in his five-touchdown performance against Philadelphia back in Week 16.
Even against one of the best defenses in football, Washington’s offense should be able to generate success. And even if the Commanders are in a negative game script, there should be opportunities for a backdoor cover toward the end of the game.
At the end of the day, Philadelphia has been unimpressive and Washington has consistently overachieved to this point.
Look for that trend to continue here and take Washington +6 (-110) as our best bet on this game.
While there are paths for either team to cover the spread in this matchup, the over 47.5 (-110) is the only way we can look at the total on Sunday.
Even accounting for how excellent the Eagles defense is, great offense often beats great defense, and Washington has been able to move the ball at will against Philadelphia in each of the previous two meetings this season.
These teams combined for 44 points in the first meeting, and that was with a hurt Jayden Daniels, who was much less effective with his legs out of the pocket.
The second meeting was a lot more predictive of what we could see on Sunday, with both teams scoring over 30 points in a game that came down to the final possession.
It certainly helps matters that Washington has been hyper-efficient on late downs all season long. In fact, the Commanders are on a historic fourth-down conversion rate, converting an absolutely unheard of 82 percent of their fourth down attempts this season. That continued against the Lions, where Washington converted three massive fourth downs that led to touchdown drives.
Ultimately, there is plenty of confidence in the Eagles’ ability to generate explosive runs and the Commanders to respond with scoring drives of their own. It won’t be a total shootout like we saw in Week 16, but any total under 50 still feels a bit short for this game.
Read more betting picks and predictions for the NFL on site.
Washington Commanders | +225 ML |
Philadelphia Eagles | -275 ML |
Spread | PHI -6 |
Total Points | O/U 47.5 |
Saquon Barkley | -210 |
Jalen Hurts | -125 |
A.J. Brown | +160 |
Terry McLaurin | +150 |
Brian Robinson | +150 |
Jayden Daniels | +190 |
Read the latest NFL news on site.
This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.