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Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs: Picks, Predictions, Odds and Player Props

Wild Card Weekend was dominated by the favorites, but one underdog that won convincingly was the Houston Texans, who routed the Los Angeles Chargers to advance to the Divisional Round for the second consecutive season. 

Now, the Texans go into Arrowhead Stadium and will try to knock off the two-time defending NFL champion Kansas City Chiefs in what would be one of the biggest upsets in recent NFL Playoff history. 

Kansas City clinched the top seed in the AFC back in Week 17, so the Chiefs' starters have essentially not played meaningful football in three weeks. Could that come back to hurt them in this game, or will they pick up right where they left off and advance to another AFC Championship? It's almost time to find out.

With both teams looking to make a statement on the sport's biggest stage, it's time to get into the odds, plus our expert's betting picks and predictions for this AFC Divisional Round matchup. 

Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs betting picks and predictions

Texans +8.0 (-110)

From a numbers perspective, it's hard to justify backing the Chiefs on this spread. For starters, these teams just met in Arrowhead Stadium in Week 16 and Kansas City closed as a 3.5-point favorite in that contest.

And while the Texans lost wide receiver Tank Dell and the Chiefs are playing their best football at the right time, there's no reason for this big a line adjustment, especially with it being more than a touchdown. 

Now that the number is over seven points, supporting the underdog could be the right way to go for this game, especially with the total sitting in the low 40s. The odds indicate that this will be a low-scoring matchup, which fits with how the Texans have played this season. 

Houston runs the ball at one of the highest rates in the league on early downs, and DeMeco Ryans and his staff are perfectly content to trust their defense if need be. And why wouldn't they be confident? After all, the Texans boast one of the better defenses in the league, sitting at fourth in success rate allowed, fifth in EPA per play and second in points per quality possession allowed. 

A defensive slugfest would be exactly what this Houston team would want. In fact, we just saw the Texans dynamic pass rush of Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter, along with an elite secondary led by Derek Stingley Jr, force Justin Herbert into playing one of the worst games of his career last weekend. 

While going up against Patrick Mahomes in his own building is a completely different animal, there's no reason to think that the Houston defense couldn't limit a Chiefs offense that has been inconsistent all season long. 

Finally, Mahomes is essentially automatic in his career as an underdog or a favorite of three points or less. However, Kansas City has often struggled to cover bigger numbers in recent years, often prioritizing winning the game instead of blowing out an opponent. 

Look for that trend to continue here, with this one potentially coming down to the final few possessions, so Houston +8.0 (-110) looks a sensible play.

Under 42.5 Total Points (-110)

While there are paths for either team to cover the spread in this matchup, Under 42.5 total points at -110 is the best way to play the total on Saturday.

Houston's defense alone is enough to give the Under a cursory glance, but the Chiefs are expected to get back a couple of key players on their own defense heading into this game, which should strengthen a unit that has been solid but unspectacular over the last two months.

There's also the matter of how both teams play, with Houston checking in at 26th in tempo on the season, while the Chiefs average 29 seconds per play. In the first meeting between these two, we saw six possessions of at least 10 plays, which should be an indicator for Saturday.

The weather could also be a factor here, with high winds and possible snow predicted in the forecast as of early in the week. Ultimately, too many factors point toward a lower-scoring affair, so take the Under at Arrowhead. 

Read more betting picks and predictions for the NFL on site.

Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs odds

Houston Texans 

+350 ML

Kansas City Chiefs

-450 ML

Spread

KC -8.0

Total Points

O/U 42.5

Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs player props

Anytime Touchdown

Joe Mixon (HOU Texans)

+120

Isaiah Pacheco (KC Chiefs)

+155

Travis Kelce (KC Chiefs)

+160

Nico Collins (HOU Texans)

+165

Kareem Hunt (KC Chiefs)

+170

Xavier Worthy (KC Chiefs)

+210

Read Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs: How to watch, TV Channel, streaming start time, injury report and stats on site.

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.

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