Kansas City Chiefs vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: Picks, Predictions, Odds

The Kansas City Chiefs will look to secure the AFC's top seed when they take on the Pittsburgh Steelers in a Christmas Day clash at Acrisure Stadium.

The Chiefs moved to 14-1 for the season when they downed the Houston Texans 27-17 victory at Arrowhead Stadium on Saturday.

Patrick Mahomes shook off any concerns that an ankle injury would hamper him by throwing for 260 yards and a touchdown while scrambling 15 yards for another.

Meanwhile, Pittsburgh will be smarting from their 34-17 defeat against the Baltimore Ravens on Saturday.

For a second straight week, Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin erred on the side of caution by sitting several starters who are dealing with injuries - including Pittsburgh’s top wide receiver George Pickens. 

But a second defeat in a row means a two-game lead over the Ravens in the AFC North has been wiped out. 

The Steelers cannot afford to slip up again as they and the Chiefs prepare for their third game in 11 days.

Pittsburgh has historically dominated this matchup, leading the all-time series 23-14. 

However, the Chiefs have won each of the last three encounters since Mahomes took over as quarterback in Kansas City.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Pittsburgh Steelers betting picks and predictions

Steelers +2.5 (+100)

Kansas City’s quest for a Super Bowl three-peat remains firmly on course, but Andy Reid’s men have struggled to put teams away convincingly this year.

Saturday’s win was only their fourth by eight points or more this season and they remain one of only a handful of teams to have not surpassed 30 points in a game this year.

This trait makes them unappealing as two-and-a-half-point favourites against a Steelers team that has covered the spread in five of their six home games this season, including each of their last four at Acrisure Stadium.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs are 7-8 against the spread this season, but only 2-7 in their last nine games.

They could be without a couple of key players this week with DT Chris Jones (calf) and OL D.J. Humphries (hamstring) among those estimated to have missed practice on Sunday.

Conversely, Tomlin said Pickens, together with quarterback Justin Fields, safety DeShon Elliott, cornerback Donte Jackson and defensive tackle Larry Ogunjobi have a real chance of returning to action this week. 

However, cornerback Joey Porter Jr. and wide receiver Ben Skowronek, who both exited the loss in Baltimore early with injuries, are doubts.

Pittsburgh's defense certainly has the potential to keep the game close against a No.13-ranked Chiefs passing offense and a running game that averages a mediocre 112.9 yards per game.

The Steelers are 5-2 as 2.5-point or bigger underdogs in 2024, showing they can compete when counted out.

Under 43.0 (-110)

Both teams have trended towards lower-scoring affairs this season, with three of the Chiefs’ last four games featuring fewer than 43 points and three of the Steelers’ last six coming in under that number. 

On several occasions, stifling defense has been the key to victory for Pittsburgh and Kansas City, who are both ranked in the NFL’s top six for average points-per-game allowed.

First Score Method 6-Way - PIT Steelers Field Goal (+300)

Only one of the Chiefs’ last five opponents have been able to score a first-half touchdown as they have jumped out into leads in every game since that Week 11 loss to the Buffalo Bills - their only defeat of the season.

But the Steelers, who have got on the board first in seven of their last 10 games, can get some early points if they remain committed to the run.

In six of Pittsburgh’s last 10 games they scored the first points via a field goal.

And with Steelers kicker Chris Boswell on a record-breaking pace with 39 field goals through 15 games, including a staggering 12 of 14 kicks made from beyond the 50-yard line, backing Pittsburgh to go 3-0 up looks a tempting play at the odds.

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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Pittsburgh Steelers odds

Kansas City Chiefs	-140 ML
Pittsburgh Steelers	+120 ML
Spread	KC Chiefs -2.5
Points	U/O 43.0

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.