Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills: Picks, Predictions, Odds and Player Props

One of the biggest games of the 2024 NFL campaign will take place in western New York on Sunday between the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs.

Kansas City enters this game following another improbable one-score victory over the Broncos at Arrowhead last week, in which the Chiefs blocked what would have been a game-winning field goal from Denver as time expired.

As for Buffalo, the Bills have won five straight games by an average of over 12 points per game, and they certainly look like the biggest threat to Andy Reid’s team in their pursuit of an undefeated regular season and an unprecedented third straight championship.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills betting picks and predictions

Chiefs +2.5 (-110)

Over the course of his career, Patrick Mahomes is a ridiculous 12-1-1 against the spread as an underdog, including an 11-3 straight up record in those spots. And while this is a game that promises to be the Chiefs toughest test to date, it’s hard to get to this line given what the Bills are likely going to be missing on the field in this one.

On one hand, what Kansas City is doing is unsustainable by any meaningful metric, as the Chiefs have won nine straight games when trailing by at least seven points. However, fading a Chiefs offense that continues to produce late-game heroics and lives on third and fourth down magic from Mahomes to consistently win games has simply become a losing battle over time. 

Buffalo is once again getting a tremendous season from Josh Allen, but he might not have a lot of weapons available to him in the passing game on Sunday. Rookie wide receiver Keon Coleman has already been ruled out for Sunday, and both Amari Cooper and Dalton Kincaid practiced in limited capacity this week. 

It’s no secret that Bills offensive coordinator Joe Brady wants to establish the run on early downs, especially with a banged-up receiving corps. Therefore, Steve Spagnuolo’s defense should have the upper hand in this matchup, as Kansas City is one of the best units at defending the run per DVOA. 

There’s also a massive coaching advantage in this one, as it’s difficult to trust Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott to make the right in-game coaching decisions when things get tight late in the game. All it takes is one wrong decision and the Chiefs could have the upper hand in the game’s final moments. This one has all of the makings of another extremely close meeting between these teams, so let’s take Kansas City +2.5 (-110) as our best bet.

Under 46.5 (-110)

While it's certainly possible to see either team winning this game, the logical game script for either side points our expert in the direction of the under. 

McDermott has done another fine job with coaching up this Bills defense, as this unit currently sits at ninth in EPA per rush, 10th in EPA per pass and ninth in scoring defense, despite dealing with numerous injuries.

Given that Kansas City has struggled with generating consistent explosiveness downfield this season, it’s hard to see that drastically changing against a Buffalo defense that focuses on taking away the explosive play and forces you to move the ball methodically down the field.

As for the hosts, the Bills offense is likely going to be pretty depleted for this game, which gives this offensive coaching staff even more of an incentive to lean more into the ground game in order to limit possessions for Kansas City and shorten the game. All things considered, the Under 46.5 (-110) is our expert’s preferred way to target the total in this one.

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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills odds

Kansas City Chiefs	+110 ML
Buffalo Bills	-130 ML
Spread	BUF -2.5
Total Points	46.5 O/U

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills player props

Anytime Touchdown

James Cook	+100
Josh Allen	+140
Khalil Shakir	+175
Kareem Hunt	-125
Travis Kelce	+165
Amari Cooper	+200

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.