Week 14 in the NFL begins with an exciting Thursday Night Football matchup between the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions in an NFC North rivalry showdown.
Both of these teams earned a win on Thanksgiving, as the Packers (9-3) took down the Miami Dolphins in Green Bay while the Lions (11-1) survived a second-half scare from the Chicago Bears.
Dan Campbell has led Detroit to an 11-1 record after 13 weeks with their only loss coming back in Week 2 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Since that defeat, the Lions have won 10 straight games and their dynamic offense has been the main reason for their success, as they have two of the best running backs in the league in David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, who have 11 and 10 rushing touchdowns respectively.
Having two running backs with double-digit scores is incredibly unusual in the NFL and the two have been nicknamed “Sonic and Knuckles,” with the speedy Gibbs representing the former and the powerful Montgomery the latter.
But the Lions offense doesn’t stop there because they also have Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta and Jameson Williams as Jared Goff’s main targets.
Detroit’s balanced offensive attack has made it very difficult on opposing defenses and that’s led to them scoring at least 20 points in 10 straight games and at least 30 points in five of their last 10.
Green Bay improved to 9-3 with their Thanksgiving Day win over the Dolphins. The Packers looked great on offense, with Jordan Love throwing for 274 yards and two touchdowns while Josh Jacobs added a rushing score for his seventh touchdown in his last five games.
Everything has been clicking for the Packers, as they’ve won seven of their last eight games, but their one loss in that span came against the Lions. These teams faced off in Green Bay in early November and Detroit won 24-14.
The two quarterbacks combined to throw just one touchdown as the game was primarily played on the ground. That will likely change this time around since Detroit plays much better indoors compared to outdoors.
An example of that is the Lions are averaging 35.2 points per game at home compared to 28.7 points on the road. Detroit’s offense has looked too good to fade lately, so back the home team to cover this small spread.
For as much as the Lions score, you might think that the Over is a pretty solid bet each week. But in reality this season, the over is 5-7 in Lions games and just 3-3 when they’re at home.
The main reason for the Over not being as profitable as one might think is because the total is often set so high. That’s the case again in Week 14 as the total for this Thursday Night Football clash is 51.5 points. It’s the only game of the week that has opened with a total above 50 points, demonstrating just how much respect the oddsmakers have for the Lions offense.
But even with this high total, it’s best to lean towards the Over. These NFC North rivals rank first and eighth in points per game and are both similar in the fact that they rely on their offense compared to their defense.
A back-and-forth affair is anticipated between these two teams. Detroit's home games have been high-scoring this season, with 43, 58, 66, 71, 36 and 46 points scored in their six contests at Ford Field.
Green Bay’s loss to the Lions a few weeks ago was just the second time they’ve scored less than 20 points in a game all season. The Packers average 26.5 points per game and they will face a Lions defense that has been decimated by injuries.
That’s led to a weaker defensive line and then a secondary that has allowed the eighth most passing yards per game. Detroit certainly has a few weaknesses right now with multiple star defensive players on the sideline which gives a small boost to the Packers offense.
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Green Bay Packers | +160 ML |
Detroit Lions | -190 ML |
Spread | Lions -3.5 |
Total Points | O/U 51.5 |
David Montgomery (DET Lions) | -165 |
Jahmyr Gibbs (DET Lions) | -165 |
Josh Jacobs (GB Packers) | -165 |
Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET Lions) | +100 |
Jayden Reed (GB Packers) | +135 |
Jameson Williams (DET Lions) | +180 |
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.