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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills: Preview, predictions, odds, & injury report

The Chiefs and Bills have clashed in high-octane playoff games in recent years, and quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen will battle again on Sunday night in the Divisional round.

The Chiefs beat the Bills in two epic playoff games - 38-24 in the AFC Championship Game three years ago and 42-36 after overtime in the Divisional Round the following season - but the Bills are favored this time after winning their last six games. Buffalo beat the Chiefs 20-17 in KC on December 10.

Chiefs vs. Bills odds

KC Chiefs+125 ML
BUF Bills-150 ML
SpreadBUF Bills -2.5
Total PointsO/U 45.5

Chiefs vs. Bills information

WhereHighmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
When6:30 PM ET, Sunday, January 21
How to watchCBS

Chiefs vs. Bills predictions

Bills to win -150

The Bills are favored by -2.5 points for Sunday's showdown at Highmark Stadium but every point could count in what is likely to be a close contest between these rivals. As a result, a straight money line bet on the Bills at -150 odds is preferred.

The tide may finally have turned in their rivalry with the Bills having won their last three regular-season games against the Chiefs including road victories at Arrowhead Stadium in each of the last two years: 24-20 last season and 20-17 last month.

The Chiefs won the big playoff showdowns against the Bills, but both of those games were also in Missouri and Buffalo has home-field advantage this time around. Sean McDermott's team have won eight of their 10 games at Highmark Stadium this season including last week's delayed wild-card clash against the Steelers.

Playing on the road in the playoffs will be a new experience for Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who has made 15 playoff appearances but every one was either at home or a neutral site in an NFL Championship Game.

Mahomes now plays a true road playoff game for the first time in his seventh season and can be assured of a noisy reception from the home fans.

The Chiefs won the AFC West for an eighth straight season this year, but their 11-6 record was their worst performance since 2017. Their offense, particularly their passing game, has struggled for most of the season and they have had to lean heavily on their impressive defense - second in the league in both points and yards allowed - to get results.

They put in an improved performance in a comfortable 26-7 home win over the Dolphins last week, when rookie wide receiver Rashee Rice led the way with 130 receiving yards and a touchdown.

The Bills appear to be fully over their mid-season struggles. The confidence in the team was apparent in the win over the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Wild Card round and the Bills have a great chance to book a spot in the AFC Championship Game.

Under 45.5 points -110

Those previous playoff meetings between these teams produced 62 and 78 points, but the line for this game is much lower at 45.5. Based on each team's recent performances, that may not be low enough so taking the under looks a solid choice.

The teams' regular-season meeting produced only 37 points, with the Bills keeping their heads in front for the majority of the game, intercepting Mahomes once and forcing a fumble.

On the other side, the Chiefs defense allowed Allen to complete only 23 of his 42 pass attempts and he was also intercepted once and sacked three times.

The Chiefs have not allowed opponents to score more than 20 points in their last six games, while no team has scored more than 22 against the Bills in their current six-game winning streak.

Another classic shootout between these elite quarterbacks would be great to see, but a lower-scoring battle between two top-five defenses in terms of points allowed seems more likely this time.

Travis Kelce over 62.5 receiving yards -110 

Travis Kelce remains a leading tight end in the NFL in addition to his new role as celebrity companion to Taylor Swift. He should figure prominently on the box score whatever the outcome of this contest. 

With the Chiefs' wide receiver corps having been plagued by dropped passes this season, particularly from Kadarius Toney and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Mahomes has fed the ball more and more to the guys he trusts: rookie Rashee Rice and Kelce.

Last week against the Dolphins the pair combined for 201 of Mahomes' 262 passing yards, despite a couple of drops by Kelce in below-zero weather.

The tight end is having a down year by his high standards, but he had 83 receiving yards on 10 targets in the regular-season game against the Bills and 71 yards against the Dolphins. He is the man Mahomes will look for when the chips are down.

Chiefs Injury Report

Defensive tackle Derrick Nnadi (elbow), wide receivers Kadarius Toney (hip) and Justyn Ross (hamstring), linebacker Cam Jones (chest) and offensive tackle Wanya Morris (concussion) are all injury concerns for the Chiefs.

Bills Injury Report

Safety Taylor Rapp (calf), wide receiver Gabe Davis (knee), cornerback Rasul Douglas (knee) and linebacker Tyrel Dodson (shoulder) all missed the game against the Steelers. Cornerbacks Christian Benford (knee) and Taron Johnson (concussion), linebackers Terrel Bernard (ankle) and Baylon Spector (back) and punter Sam Martin (hamstring) were all hurt in that game and head coach Sean McDermott said the whole group will be monitored on a day-to-day basis, but Davis has since been ruled out.

Chiefs vs. Bills Stats

The Bills have won the teams' last three regular-season meetings, but the Chiefs won their last two playoff contests.

The Chiefs have covered the spread in 13 of their last 16 games as road underdogs, while the Bills have won eight of their 10 home games this season.

Both teams' defenses finished the regular season in the top five in points allowed. The Bills made the third-most takeaways in the NFL with 30, while the Chiefs made just 17 which put them 27th in the NFL.

Buffalo's defensive playmaking could give them an edge, particularly if the Chiefs' offense - 15th in the NFL in points scored - doesn't put in the performance it has in past postseasons.

Head-to-Head

Chiefs overall wins24
Bills overall wins29
Ties overall1

This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.

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