For the second time in four years, the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers will face off for the Lombardi Trophy. Who comes out a champion?
The Chiefs are chasing a third NFL Championship in five years, while the 49ers are seeking to end a title drought that dates back to 1995.
Let's analyze the all-important matchup set to take place on Sunday.
|Allegiant Stadium, Paradise, Nevada
|6:30 PM ET, Sunday, February 11
|How to watch
|CBS, Univision, Nickelodeon; streaming via Paramount+, Vix, NFL+
SF 49ers -2.0 (-110)
Mahomes Magic continued as Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes defied the odds again to beat the Baltimore Ravens 17-10 in the AFC Championship. Baltimore was the only team with a better scoring defense than the Chiefs, while the Niners had the third-best defense by points allowed.
That said, the Ravens offense did not have anything close to the multi-faceted attack of the 49ers.
Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has an immense challenge on his hands. He has proven more than capable of rising to the occasion in the past, as he helped KC win the NFL Championship during the 2019 and 2022 seasons.
Still, the combination of Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle will prove too much for the Chiefs, which should see the 49ers win by at least a field goal.
Travis Kelce Over 70.5 receiving yards (-110)
Travis Kelce will be in for arguably the most difficult matchup possible, with either Dre Greenlaw or first-team All-Pro Fred Warner likley to cover the future Hall of Fame tight end for most of Sunday's game.
But the AFC Championship against the Ravens should have been a tough one as well, with Kyle Hamilton, Patrick Queen, and Roquan Smith among the options to cover Kelce. All the Chiefs star did against the highly-regarded Baltimore defense was catch 11 passes for 116 yards and a TD.
Kelce steps up when the lights are brightest. He recently broke the record for postseason receptions, and he's second on the all-time list in postseason receiving yards and receiving touchdowns, trailing 49ers legend Jerry Rice in both categories.
As a result, fans should see more of the same from Kelce.
SF 49ers Team Points Over 27.5 (+160)
In San Francisco's worst game of the season - a 33-19 Week 16 loss to the Baltimore Ravens - the Niners had five turnovers but still scored 19 points against the most prolific defense in terms of takeaways this season.
The Kansas City Chiefs had the joint-fifth-fewest takeaways with 17 - the same amount as the Arizona Cardinals and one less than the Washington Commanders.
Even when playing poorly, San Francisco still puts up points. They scored less than 20 points in just four games all season, with that Baltimore loss the most recent occasion. The Niners surpassed 28 points in nine games, including in the NFC Championship against the Detroit Lions.
The Chiefs had a league-leading drop percentage at 6.9 percent. If KC can't string together long possessions, their defense will get tired and the Niners' offense will put up points.
DT Kalia Davis: Ankle, unspecified
DE Arik Armstead: Knee and foot, unspecified
TE George Kittle: Toe, unspecified
LB Oren Burks: Shoulder, unspecified
OG Joe Thuney: Pectoral, unspecified
DE Charles Omenihu: Knee, out
WR Skyy Moore: Knee, unspecified
RB Jerick McKinnon: Groin, unspecified
The Chiefs' defense allowed the second-fewest points in the regular season, while the Niners' defense allowed the third-fewest.
KC had the second-most sacks but the joint-fifth-fewest takeaways, while San Francisco had the fifth-most takeaways and the joint-seventh-most sacks.
The Niners ranked third in rushing yards and second in passing yards. The Chiefs finished the regular season ranked 19th in rushing yards and ninth in passing yards.
Brock Purdy, the 49ers quarterback, had the best passer rating in the NFL at 113.0, gained the most yards per completion with 13.9, and led the league in touchdown pass percentage with seven percent of his throws being scores.
Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes led the league in pass attempts and completions per game (25.1 completions on 37.3 attempts).
The last meeting between the 49ers and Chiefs came on October 23, 2022, with Kansas City winning 44-23.
Prior to that, the two teams met in the 2020 NFL Championship, with the Chiefs prevailing, 31-20.
|San Francisco 49ers
|Kansas City Chiefs
Odds mentioned in this article were correct at the time of writing and are subject to change.