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Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs: Picks, Predictions, Odds and Player Props

The Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills will add another chapter to their burgeoning rivalry when they meet again in the AFC Championship on Sunday evening in Kansas City.

It’s a matchup between the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds in the conference that many expected when the playoffs began, although Buffalo had to survive a tense battle with the third-seeded Baltimore Ravens in the Divisional Round.

Kansas City followed up its first-round bye with a comfortable win over the Houston Texans this past weekend.

It’s time to break down the Bills vs. Chiefs matchup and discuss the best bets to make.

Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs betting picks and predictions

Kansas City Chiefs -1.5 (-110)

The Chiefs and Bills have squared off seven times since the Patrick Mahomes vs. Josh Allen era began in 2020.

Kansas City owns a slight 4-3 lead in those seven encounters, but the difference between the regular season and the playoffs tells the real story.

All three of the Bills’ victories have been regular-season results. Three of the Chiefs’ wins have been high-stakes playoff games – one in the AFC Championship (2020) and two in the Divisional Round (2021 and 2023).

Largely as a result of such head-to-head success, Mahomes is already a three-time NFL Championship winner (and three-time NFL Championship MVP). Allen has not yet lifted the trophy (nor has any other player in Bills history).

Will Buffalo finally be able to get over the hump this year? Even though the visitors are just +1.5 underdogs, it seems unlikely. Whereas the Chiefs enjoyed a bye, the Bills have already slogged their way through two postseason games and are coming off a thriller against the Ravens that was a huge struggle in both the mental and physical departments.

Multiple guys got banged up, including safety Taylor Rapp, who left the game with a hip injury, did not return and is currently listed as questionable.

Buffalo beat Kansas City 30-21 in Week 11, but it was a much closer contest than the score suggests and – most importantly – it was at Highmark Stadium.

A date with the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium is obviously a whole different beast for the Bills. Head coach Sean McDermott is 0-2 on the road in the playoffs against Kansas City, including a 38-24 beatdown suffered in the 2020 conference title tilt.

All things considered, look for the Chiefs to win and cover on Sunday.

Over 48.5 (-110)

When quarterbacks like Mahomes and Allen are on the field, you have to feel good about backing plenty of points to be scored. It’s not quite as simple as that, of course, but it’s close.

At 29-years-old, Mahomes has already cemented himself as one of the greatest QBs of all time – especially in the playoffs. Allen is likely to win MVP this season.

Moreover, the Bills got completely pummeled on the ground by the Ravens and were mediocre at best against the run during the regular season. If they can’t contain the Chiefs rushing attack, that will open things up for Mahomes – a recipe for disaster for any defense.

On the other side of the ball, Buffalo is the No. 2 scoring offense in the entire NFL behind only the Detroit Lions. 

Xavier Worthy anytime touchdown scorer (+200)

Xavier Worthy, whom Kansas City was able to acquire in round one of the 2024 NFL Draft thanks to a trade with Buffalo, has scored six touchdowns as a rookie. That includes one in each of his last two regular-season outings.

The former Texas standout came close to being the first touchdown scorer last week against the Texans but got tackled at the one-yard line before Kareem Hunt did the rest of the work.

Worthy found the endzone against the Bills in Week 12 and has great value to do the same in this rematch.

Read more betting picks and predictions for the NFL on site.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills odds

Buffalo Bills 

+105 ML

Kansas City Chiefs 

-125 ML

Spread 

Chiefs -1.5

Total Points 

O/U 48.5

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills player props

Anytime Touchdown

Josh Allen (BUF) 

-105

James Cook (BUF) 

+105

Khalil Shakir (BUF) 

+22

Travis Kelce (KC) 

+125

Isiah Pacheco (KC) 

+150

Kareem Hunt (KC) 

+1625

Read Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs: How to watch AFC Championship, TV channel, streaming, start time and stats on site.

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.

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