Buffalo Bills vs. Houston Texans: Picks, Predictions and Odds

On Sunday, the Buffalo Bills take on the Houston Texans in a Week 5 tussle of two reigning AFC division champions looking to extend their winning records.

The game takes place at NRG Stadium, where the Texans avoided posting back-to-back losses when C.J Stroud's touchdown pass with 18 seconds remaining secured a 24-20 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars. 

The pass was to third-string running back Dare Ogunbowale, who was playing because both Joe Mixon and Dameon Pierce were out with injuries.

The Bills now own an identical 3-1 record after they suffered a 35-10 blowout loss at the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday.

Quarterback Josh Allen took a number of hits and the Bills’ defense gave up TDs in every quarter as the team was outgained 427 yards to 236.

Buffalo will look to bounce back on the road against a team they humbled 40-0 the last time they faced off in 2021.

However, the Texans have made great strides since hiring head coach Demeco Ryans and drafting Stroud, who threw for 345 yards and two touchdowns against the Jags to go over 1,000 yards passing this year.

Buffalo Bills vs. Houston Texans betting picks and predictions

Houston Texans ML (+100)

It’s hard to like the Bills in this one because the Texans’ top two rushers are getting healthy again while the name of Buffalo’s quarterback continues to appear on their injury report. 

Bills coach Sean McDermott said Allen was "sore" but "should be fine" after he took a significant hit on a failed trick play during Sunday’s loss to the Ravens.

Allen, who threw for over 4,300 regular season yards last year, had already been dealing with an injury to his left hand that he suffered in Week 1.

He is currently down at 20th on the list of NFL QBs by yardage and Sunday’s game was his first without a passing touchdown or rushing touchdown since Week 9 in 2021 against the Jaguars.

Those are worrying signs for the Bills, who also saw wide receiver Khalil Shakir leave the game with a right ankle injury and went three of 13 on third down in Baltimore.

Their defense failed to hold up against a physical Ravens offense that didn’t let up after Derrick Henry took his first handoff 87 yards to the house. 

Buffalo are allowing 5.7 yards per carry this season, which is significantly up on last season’s figure, and they will need to be much better against the Texans this week. 

Houston bounced back from their Week 3 setback against the still-undefeated Minnesota Vikings with a closer-than-comfortable win over the Jaguars.

But it was done without Mixon and Pierce, whose absences were major contributory factors to the Vikings defeat.

Stroud had his best game of the year so far, by the numbers, and he came through in the clutch with that one-yard game-winning pass to Ogunbowale.

The unsung hero could be riding the bench again this week, though, with Ryans declaring Mixon (ankle) to be day-to-day this week while Pierce (hamstring) is also nearing his scheduled return date.

Mixon looked good in his first two games with Houston before getting hurt, averaging 4.7 yards per carry with 184 yards on 39 attempts plus a touchdown in their Week 1 win over the Indianapolis Colts.

His availability would balance a Texans offense that has relied on Stroud’s arm and the abilities of their top three wideouts to get open.

The triple threat of Nico Collins, Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs should prevent the Bills from stacking the box with defenders. Houston can then chip away at a rushing defense that was gashed for 271 yards last week.  

That should set up another home win for the Texans, who are 5-2 across their last seven meetings with the Bills.

Longest Touchdown scored - Under 37.5 yards (-115)

Buffalo got off to a bad start in Baltimore when Henry cut once to hit the hole and barreled downfield for an astounding 87-yard touchdown on the first play of the game.

Aside from that, the Bills defense has limited the explosive plays of their opponents pretty well this year — and the Texans don’t have a rusher with the same home-run hitting ability as Henry.

Buffalo has not allowed a passing play longer than 26 yards this year and they remain one of four teams not to have been on the wrong end of a passing play of 40 yards.

Likewise, Houston have limited their opponents’ big-play potential in recent weeks with Jacksonville managing only one play of over 32 yards and Minnesota’s longest in Week 3 going for 39 yards.

Neither of those went for touchdowns, which suggests the Texans’ recovery defense is good enough to stop Buffalo from scoring from distance this week. 

Read more betting picks and predictions for the NFL on site.

Buffalo Bills vs. Houston Texans odds

Buffalo Bills	-120 ML
Houston Texans	+100 ML
Spread	BUF Bills -1.0
Total Points	O/U 47.0

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.