Baltimore Ravens vs. Houston Texans: Picks, Predictions, Odds

The Baltimore Ravens and Houston Texans meet for a special Week 17 game on Christmas, one of two games scheduled on the holiday.

Both the Ravens (10-5) and the Texans (9-6) have already guaranteed themselves a playoff spot, but Baltimore is in a battle with the Steelers for the AFC North title.

Baltimore has opened as 4.5-point favorites on Christmas Day, so let’s preview this matchup with our expert’s best bets.

Baltimore Ravens vs. Houston Texans betting picks and predictions

Ravens -4.5 (-110)

It’s a short-week battle between the Ravens and Texans on Christmas. Both teams played on Saturday and will have a quick turnaround before their Week 17 matchup in Houston.

Last week, the Ravens improved to 10-5 with a very important victory over the Steelers. The AFC North title is still up for grabs since the Ravens and Steelers are both 10-5 and Baltimore’s Week 16 win evened the season series 1-1.

That makes Week 17 and 18 extremely important for the Ravens and offers an opportunity for Lamar Jackson to strengthen his MVP campaign. Jackson, a two-time MVP winner, has been trailing Josh Allen for the last few weeks and many thought Allen closed the debate after his string of historic performances in early December.

However, a lackluster Week 16 performance by Allen combined with a 3 TD game from Jackson has closed the gap between the two. Jackson has been the primary reason for the Ravens having scored at least 30 points in five of the last seven games. That offensive production might be too much for the Texans.

Week 16 was a difficult loss for the Texans. Not only did they fall to the Chiefs, but Tank Dell suffered a gruesome knee injury and will be out for awhile.

The once elite Texans receiving room of Dell, Stefon Diggs, and Nico Collins is down to just Collins. That’s going to make it difficult for C.J. Stroud to have success through the air since teams will make sure to limit Collins’ involvement.

That leaves Stroud with Dalton Schultz, Robert Woods, and Xavier Hutchinson to create offense. Fortunately for the Texans, they still have Joe Mixon in the backfield. Mixon has had a perfect first year in Houston but will have his most difficult test yet in Week 17.

The Ravens are allowing just 83.1 rushing yards per game which is by far the least in all of football. That strong defensive line will keep Mixon in check on the ground.

With an injury plagued receiving corps and a tough matchup for Mixon, I’m not too high on the Texans offense in Week 17. The Ravens have played like the better team in the last few weeks so back them by the spread.

Over 46.5 Total Points (-110)

The over has been a cash cow in Baltimore games this season. Twelve of their 15 games have gone over the posted total and they average going over the total by 5.7 points. So they don’t just sneak over the total - they fly by it.

It’s not too surprising to see the Ravens with such high-scoring games because they have one of the most productive offenses paired with a terrible secondary. Baltimore is averaging 30.1 points per game this year and being on the road doesn’t appear to affect the Ravens since they still average 29.4 points away from home. Plus, the Ravens have finished with at least 28 points in 10 of their last 13 games.

Baltimore’s offense is as consistent as they come, and it’s paired with a defense that has allowed the second most passing yards per game. That should provide Stroud with a few opportunities for big plays against a struggling Ravens secondary.

Although the Texans don’t have the same dynamic offense, they still average over 23 points per game this season. It’s also possible for the over to win without the Texans scoring their season average since the Ravens could score 30+ which has become a common theme.

With that said, I still think Stroud can take advantage of the Baltimore secondary. There should be plenty of deep shots to Collins throughout the game and big plays are perfect for the over. I could see a score around 30-24 in favor of the Ravens, so I’m backing the spread and over. 

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Baltimore Ravens vs. Houston Texans odds

Baltimore Ravens	-230 ML
Houston Texans	+190 ML
Spread	Ravens -4.5
Total Points	O/U 46.5

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.