One of the biggest contests on the Week 4 NFL slate is a massive tilt between the Baltimore Ravens and Dallas Cowboys, and both teams could really use a victory.
Will Dak Prescott and the Cowboys bounce back from last week’s embarrassing loss, or will Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens get back on track after an 0-2 start?
Kickoff is on the horizon, so let’s take a look at the odds for the game, plus our expert’s betting picks, predictions and player props.
One of the biggest strengths of this Dallas Cowboys team in the Mike McCarthy era is the ability to win and cover at home. In fact, the Cowboys are an excellent 43-26 at AT&T Stadium under McCarthy over the last four seasons.
However, the last two home games for Dallas have been embarrassing showings for Dak Prescott and company, as the Cowboys were thrashed by the Packers in the playoffs last January before following that up with a blowout loss in their home opener to the Saints in Week 2 of this season.
Now, Dallas welcomes in a desperate Baltimore Ravens team that will likely put forth their best effort of the season after letting a win slip away against the Las Vegas Raiders last Sunday.
This clearly isn't the same Ravens team that steamrolled the league en route to last year's AFC title game, and the 0-2 record speaks to that. With that said, this line probably would likely be closer to Baltimore -3 if the Ravens didn’t squander a 10-point lead at home to Las Vegas in Week 2.
The Cowboys just had a ton of trouble with defending a strong rushing attack against the Saints, and that won’t get any easier against Jackson, Derrick Henry and this dynamic Baltimore ground game.
Furthermore, the Ravens secondary should be able to contain CeeDee Lamb and take away that explosive element of the Dallas passing game.
If the Cowboys can’t run the ball effectively and Prescott is forced to spread the ball around to other receivers, it could be a long day for this offense.
This total has moved up a bit following the opening number of 47.5, and the move makes sense given the state of each of these defenses at the moment.
On one side, the Dallas defense has come up small time and again when going up against playoff teams with talented quarterbacks. Just look at last season’s games against Green Bay, Buffalo and San Francisco for example.
On the other side, Mike Macdonald is now in Seattle after a brilliant season as the defensive coordinator in Baltimore in 2023, and his loss has already been felt.
Over the first couple of weeks, this Ravens defensive unit has definitely struggled to adapt to a new scheme and defensive coordinator early in the upcoming season. Time will tell if that will change, but for now, it’s hard to envisage that gets better against a Cowboys offense that can certainly put up points, even in a losing effort.
While Baltimore will likely try to control this game on the ground early on, the Ravens have had trouble establishing the run in the second half of games. That was one of the things that got Baltimore in trouble against the Raiders, when they were unable to put the game away on the ground after half time.
This Dallas secondary can be exploited, and I expect Jackson and offensive coordinator Todd Monken to pick their spots to do so. Let’s roll with the Over 49.0 (-110) for our game totals pick.
While he failed to clear this number a week ago, backing Prescott to throw a pair of touchdowns at home has historically been a profitable endeavor.
Prescott has thrown for at least two touchdowns in 19 of his last 24 games played at AT&T Stadium since 2021. Additionally, he’s thrown for 57 passing touchdowns at home over the last three seasons, compared to just 40 on the road.
This is an offense that has historically thrived at home, and even if the Cowboys don’t get the win on Sunday, I still like the value we’re getting on Prescott at this number. Let’s back Dak to go Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-120) for our best player prop bet.
Read more betting picks and predictions for the NFL on site.
Baltimore Ravens | -115 ML |
Dallas Cowboys | -105 ML |
Spread | BAL Ravens -1 |
Total Points | O/U 49.0 |
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.